Estimation of insurance-related losses resulting from coastal flooding in France

Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Moncoulon, David; Roy, Sylvestre Le; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Idier, Déborah; Oliveros, Carlos

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-195-2016

Cited by 12 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 47 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…is part of the reflections. For many years, CCR has developed catastrophe models to evaluate the financial impact of natural disasters on residential and commercial insured values [17][18][19]. To improve knowledge on agriculture exposure to climatic events, CCR, in association with Agrocampus Ouest, is supervising a PhD project.…”

Section: Context and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Innovative Damage Model for Crop Insurance, Combining Two Hazards into a Single Climatic Index

Kapsambelis

Moncoulon²,

Cordier

2019

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme weather events have strong impacts on agriculture and crop insurance. In France, drought (2003, 2011, 2017, and 2018) and excess of water (2016) are considered the most significant events in terms of economic losses. The crop (re)insurance industry must estimate its financial exposure to climatic events in terms of the average annual losses and potential extreme damages. Therefore, the objective of this paper was to develop a model that links meteorological indices to crop yield losses with a specific focus on extreme climatic events. We designed a meteorological index (DOWKI: Drought and Overwhelmed Water Key Indicator) based on a water balance cumulative anomaly that can explain drought and excess of water at the department scale. We propose a crop damage model calibrated by combining historical yield records and the DOWKI values. To estimate the financial exposure of insured crops at a national level, stochastic simulations of the DOWKI were performed to produce one thousand years of yield losses. Our objective was to estimate the effect of climatic extremes affecting the global production. Simulated average annual losses and the possible maximum claim for three crops (soft winter wheat, winter barley, and sunflower) are presented in the results.

show abstract

Section: Context and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Innovative Damage Model for Crop Insurance, Combining Two Hazards into a Single Climatic Index

Kapsambelis

Moncoulon²,

Cordier

2019

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The modelling system developed by CCR [8] is based on the combination of three models. The first is the TELEMAC-2D hydrodynamic model [12] which is used to simulate the tide and the rise in sea level caused by a weather event.…”

Section: Coastal Flooding Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurance) is a public reinsurer providing the unlimited state-guarantee to its clients for natural disaster coverage. In this purpose, CCR has developed models to evaluate insurance damages caused by climatic events such has flood [7], drought and storm surge [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the evolution of the financial impacts of flood and storm surge between 2015 and 2050 in France

Moncoulon¹,

Veysseire²,

Naulin³

et al. 2016

Int. J. SAFE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurance) is a French reinsurance company playing a major role in the natural catastrophe coverage in France. Since 2003, CCR has been developing tools for the estimation of its exposure to climatic risks. These tools cover three main perils: flood, storm surge and drought. Models are used to estimate the insurance losses and are systematically used for all major climatic events. Both modelling calibration and validation are based on an important policy and claim database. It was created in 2003 and supplied every year with insurer's data. In order to evaluate the financial exposure for insurance of extreme events, a stochastic approach has been developed since 2011, for flood, storm surge and drought. The simulation of the stochastic event set allows us to estimate the mean annual losses and losses associated with different return periods. The objective of this approach is to connect the impact models for all perils with a large set of climate simulations. ARPEGE-Climate (Météo-France) is a model that is used to generate two sets of 200 years of hourly atmospheric time series: at current conditions and at year 2050 conditions according to RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5. The main climate data used are: hourly rainfall, wind speed and atmospheric pressure and the Soil Wetness Index that is issued from a complementary surface model. The hazard and vulnerability models developed are based on the climatic data to compute continuous loss estimations. The method proposed will take into consideration development scenarios to evaluate the consequences of demographic growth and insured values evolution. The simulations show a global loss increase in 2050 which can be attributed to climatic factors such as extreme rainfall increase or sea level rise as well as, for a major part, the population and insured value growth in areas at risk.

show abstract

“…As CCR is clearly exposed to the financial consequences of natural disasters occurring in France through the Nat Cat compensation scheme, it has been developing its own impact models: since 2003 for flood [1], 2005 for drought [2] and 2011 for storm surge [3]. These models are designed to fulfil two main objectives: -to estimate the financial impact of natural events, shortly after their occurrence, for insurance companies, for CCR and for the French state, i.e.…”

Section: Context Of the Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupling a global climatic model with insurance impact models for flood and drought: an estimation of the financial impact of climate change

Tinard¹,

Wang²,

Moncoulon³

et al. 2016

E3S Web Conf.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. CCR, a French reinsurance company mostly involved in natural disasters coverage in France, has been developing tools for the estimation of its exposure to climatic risks for many years. Both a flood and a drought models ZHUH GHYHORSHG DQG FDOLEUDWHG RQ D ODUJH SROLFLHV DQG FODLPV GDWDEDVH VXSSOLHG HYHU\ \HDU ZLWK LQVXUHUV ¶ GDWD More recently, CCR has been developing a stochastic approach in order to evaluate its financial exposure to extreme events. A large and realistic event set has been generated by applying extreme value statistic tools to simulate hazard and to estimate, using our impact models, the average annual losses and losses related to different return periods. These event sets have been simulated separately for flood and drought, with a hypothesis of independence, consistent with recent annual damage data. The newest development presented here consists in the use of the ARPEGE±Climat model performed by Météo-France to simulate two 200-years sets of hourly atmospheric time series reflecting both the current climate and the RCP 4.5 climate conditions circa year 2050. These climatic data constitute the input data for the flood and drought impact models to detect events and simulate the associated hazard and damages. Our two main goals are (1) to simulate simultaneously flood and drought events for the same simulated years and (2) to evaluate the financial impact of climate change.

show abstract

Estimation of insurance-related losses resulting from coastal flooding in France

Cited by 12 publications

References 47 publications

An Innovative Damage Model for Crop Insurance, Combining Two Hazards into a Single Climatic Index

An Innovative Damage Model for Crop Insurance, Combining Two Hazards into a Single Climatic Index

Modelling the evolution of the financial impacts of flood and storm surge between 2015 and 2050 in France

Coupling a global climatic model with insurance impact models for flood and drought: an estimation of the financial impact of climate change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About