Estimation of High School Entrance Examination Success Rates Using Machine Learning and Beta Regression Models

Abstract

Education is the foundation of economic, social, and cultural development for every individual and society as a whole. Students are accepted to secondary education institutions with the high school entrance examination made by the Ministry of National Education in Turkey. In this study, the success rates of the students who took the high school entrance examination in Turkey's 81 provinces in 2019 were handled with the machine learning regression and beta regression model. The present paper aimed to model, predict, and explain students' success rates using variables such as divorce rate, gross domestic product, illiteracy, and higher education populations. Support vector regression, random forest, decision tree, and beta regression model were applied to estimate success rates. Two models with the highest R 2 value were found to be beta regression and random forest models. When the prediction errors of beta regression and random forest model were examined, it seemed to be that the random forest model is relatively superior to the beta regression model in predicting the success rates. While the beta regression model was the best predictor of the success rates of Çanakkale province, the random forest model predicted the success rates of Ankara well. Also, it was seen that the variables found to be significant in the beta regression model for success rates were also crucial in the random forest model. It is recommended to use both the beta and random forest models to estimate the students' success rates.