Estimation of Grid Reinforcement Costs Triggered by Future Grid Customers: Influence of the Quantification Method (Scaling vs. Large-Scale Simulation) and Coincidence Factors (Single vs. Multiple Application)

Abstract

The integration of future grid customers, e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps, or photovoltaic modules, will challenge existing low-voltage power grids in the upcoming years. Hence, distribution system operators must quantify future grid reinforcement measures and resulting costs early. On this account, this work initially evaluates different methods to quantify future grid reinforcement needs, applied by the current state of research. Thereby, it indicates the significance of large-scale grid simulations, i.e., simulating several thousand low-voltage grids, to quantify grid reinforcements accurately. Otherwise, a selected area’s total grid reinforcement costs might be misjudged significantly. Due to its fast application, deterministic grid simulations based on coincidence factors are most commonly used in the current state of research to simulate several thousand grids. Hence, in the second step, recent studies’ approaches to applying grid customers’ coincidence factors are evaluated: While simplified approaches allow fast simulation of numerous grids, they underestimate potential grid congestion and grid reinforcement costs. Therefore, a fully automated large-scale grid simulation tool is developed in this work to allow the simulation of multiple grids applying grid customers’ coincidence factors appropriately. As a drawback, the applied deterministic framework only allows an estimation of future grid reinforcement costs. Detailed determination of each grid’s grid reinforcement costs requires time-resolved grid simulations.

Event-Informed Identification and Allocation of Distribution Network Planning Candidates With Influence Scores and Binary Linear Programming

“…This, in turn, serves as a means to defer otherwise necessary IU and VR installations and can represent an important economic benefit [19]. While IU and VR can be costly [20], they are still the current industry standard registered in grid codes globally [21], [22]. As discussed before, some of the IU candidates may be unfeasible due to non-technical restrictions (e.g., lack of community acceptance), which highlights the relevance of including NWAs as expansion candidates.…”

“…3) Addressing remote events: Some candidates can solve congestion and voltage issues in remote locations. Previous work [20] used coincidence factors (i.e., correlations between intensity and occurrence of events) as an indication of the potential of a local solution to have a remote effect. This paper proposes an alternative based on the physical relationships between technologies, congestion and voltage drop, analogue to the critical sensitivity indices in [42].…”

Modelling and Simulation/Optimization of Austria’s National Multi-Energy System with a High Degree of Spatial and Temporal Resolution

“…Electric vehicles are charged according to the SLP, derived from [108], with 3.7 kW charging power. Since the number of electric vehicles is above 1000 for the vast majority of substation districts, a low coincidence factor can be applied [108,109]. Heat pumps are operated as heat demand occurs, without a storage option.…”

Power System Planning and Quality Control

“…Thus, early quantification of grid reinforcements in the future is an essential operator task. Thormann and Kienberger [1], evaluate various current states of research techniques for quantification of the futuristic needs of grid reinforcement. They indicate that for accurate quantification there is an essence of the simulations for large-scale grids as thousands of low-voltage grids.…”