Estimation of electricity cost of wind energy using Monte Carlo simulations based on nonparametric and parametric probability density functions

Elfarra, Munir; Kaya, Mustafa

doi:10.1016/j.aej.2021.02.027

Cited by 15 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Based on the fracture characteristic parameters obtained based on rock cores and thin slices, the physical properties of fractures were calculated with the Monte Carlo multiple approximation method. 44,45 The Monte Carlo method is based on probability theory and mathematical statistics to solve mathematical physics and engineering technology problems. The specific issue first establishes a probability model, carries the random test to the model, and statistically solves it.…”

Section: Samples and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characteristics of Natural Fractures in an Ultradeep Marine Carbonate Gas Reservoir and Their Impact on the Reservoir: A Case Study of the Maokou Formation of the JLS Structure in the Sichuan Basin, China

Wang

Qin

et al. 2021

Energy Fuels

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The primary gas layer of the Maokou Formation of the JLS structure in the Sichuan Basin is a typical pore-fracture carbonate gas reservoir. Natural fractures (mainly tectonic fractures) serve as the critical factor in improving the reservoir's physical properties. The characteristics, formation mechanisms of natural fractures, and their impact on the reservoir are analyzed using the core, thin slice, full microresistivity imager imaging logging, production testing, and the Monte Carlo method multiple approximations. The results show that the fractures in the Maokou Formation reservoir generally refer to shear fractures of a tectonic origin, with the characteristics of a medium scale (10−20 cm), a large inclination angle (45− 90), a high density (greater than 5 m −1 ), a medium opening (1−3 mm), and a low filling degree. There are three primary formation stages of natural fractures in the area, the Indosinian stage (232−210 Ma), the early-middle Yanshanian stage (145−90 Ma), and the late Yanshanian−Himalayan stage (90−0 Ma). The corresponding principal stress directions are NW, near-SN, and NNW, respectively. Natural fractures have a positive effect on the improvement of reservoir physical properties. The fracture's physical parameters show a good positive correlation with the physical properties of the reservoirs. The fracture parameters influence the reservoir's physical properties ranked from biggest to smallest: opening, length, and density. The greater the development degree of fractures, the greater the corresponding natural gas production capacity. The research results provide a new technical method for quantifying the influence of fracture parameters on reservoir's physical properties.

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Section: Samples and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With these data, the physical parameters (porosity and permeability) of fractures can be calculated. Based on the fracture characteristic parameters obtained based on rock cores and thin slices, the physical properties of fractures were calculated with the Monte Carlo multiple approximation method. , …”

Section: Samples and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of Natural Fractures in an Ultradeep Marine Carbonate Gas Reservoir and Their Impact on the Reservoir: A Case Study of the Maokou Formation of the JLS Structure in the Sichuan Basin, China

Wang

Qin

et al. 2021

Energy Fuels

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“…Looking at some previous studies, we find that this method is not the most accurate one, since it may generate large uncertainties. For example, in the work of Elfarra and Kaya [36], two sites from the Aegean Sea and Mexico were evaluated, and it is noticed that for the sites located in the Mediterranean Sea the Weibull distribution overestimated the AEP by more than 10% while for the other site, the AEP production was underestimated by more than 6%. Also in the work of Jaramillo and Borja [37], it is mentioned that the AEP may be underestimated by at least 12%, which is caused mainly by the underestimation of the wind speeds from the intervals 12 and 20 m/s.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Offshore Wind Energy Potential in the Romanian Exclusive Economic Zone

Onea

Rusu

2021

JMSE

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The European offshore wind market is continuously expanding. This means that, together with significant technological developments, new coastal environments should be considered for the implementation of the wind farms, as is the case of the Black Sea, which is targeted in the present work. From this perspective, an overview of the wind energy potential in the Romanian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Black Sea is presented in this work. This is made by analyzing a total of 20 years of wind data (corresponding to the time interval 2000–2019) coming from different sources, which include ERA5 reanalysis data and satellite measurements. Furthermore, a direct comparison between these datasets was also carried out. Finally, the results of the present work indicate that the Romanian offshore areas can replicate the success reported by the onshore wind projects, of which we can mention the Fantanele-Cogealac wind farm with an operating capacity of 600 MW.

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“…The Monte Carlo simulation has been applied in numerous fields as an alternative to exact mathematical models or even as the only means of estimating solutions for complex problems. Therefore, nowadays, it is possible to find models that use the Monte Carlo simulation in areas such as information technology, the energy sector, business, economics, industry, and even social contexts [55][56][57][58][59]. The Monte Carlo simulation can be used in all fields where behavior is random or probabilistic.…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost of Ownership of Spare Parts under Uncertainty: Integrating Reliability and Costs

et al. 2023

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In capital-intensive organizations, decisions regarding capital costs play an important role due to the significant amount of investment required and the expected return on investment. Spare parts management is crucial to those ends, as spare parts management can constitute a significant portion of OPEX. Companies must implement a trade-off analysis between stock levels and assets’ availability. Decision-making supports mechanisms such as the Level of Repair Analysis (LORA), Integrated Logistics Systems (ILS), and life-cycle costing (LCC) models have been developed to aid in equipment selection, implementation, and decommissioning. Nowadays, these mechanisms appear to be integrated with risk-management models and standards. This paper proposes a long-term costing model that integrates a capacity analysis, reliability functions, and risk considerations for the cost management of logistics activities, particularly in MRO structures. The model is built upon Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TD-ABC) and incorporates the volume of activities generated by MRO needs. It also addresses uncertainty through the integration of a cost-at-risk model. By integrating spare parts, activity-based cost models, and risk measurement through Monte Carlo simulation, this study offers powerful insights into optimizing spare parts logistics activities. The proposed model is a novel approach to include the risk of cost in spare parts management, and its matrix-activity-based structure makes possible the development of sophisticated mathematical models for costing and optimization purposes in different domains.

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Estimation of electricity cost of wind energy using Monte Carlo simulations based on nonparametric and parametric probability density functions

Cited by 15 publications

References 16 publications

Characteristics of Natural Fractures in an Ultradeep Marine Carbonate Gas Reservoir and Their Impact on the Reservoir: A Case Study of the Maokou Formation of the JLS Structure in the Sichuan Basin, China

Characteristics of Natural Fractures in an Ultradeep Marine Carbonate Gas Reservoir and Their Impact on the Reservoir: A Case Study of the Maokou Formation of the JLS Structure in the Sichuan Basin, China

Assessment of the Offshore Wind Energy Potential in the Romanian Exclusive Economic Zone

Cost of Ownership of Spare Parts under Uncertainty: Integrating Reliability and Costs

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