Estimation Method for Transmission Line Overloads Due to Renewable Energy Source (RES) Output Forecast Errors in Daily Supply and Demand Planning

Abstract

We propose a method to estimate transmission‐line overloads due to forecast errors of power output of renewable energy sources. The proposed method involves particle swarm optimization and optimal power flow calculations. The effectiveness of the method is confirmed via numerical simulations using a modified IEEE RTS 24‐bus system model. The results indicate that the proposed method can determine the forecast errors of the renewable power output that causes thermal overload, and further predict the occurrences of transmission‐line overload under generator activation in supply and demand planning. Furthermore, we explain the occurrence mechanism of transmission‐line overload due to forecast errors, which may contribute to improve the daily supply and demand planning. © 2023 Institute of Electrical Engineer of Japan and Wiley Periodicals LLC.