Estimating uncertainty in terrestrial critical loads and their exceedances at four sites in the UK

Skeffington, R. A.; Whitehead, Paul; Heywood, E.; Hall, Jane; Wadsworth, Richard A.; Reynolds, B.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.05.001

Cited by 20 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…However, rather surprisingly, translating input uncertainties into uncertainty in the outputs is typically less than the summed uncertainty in the input parameters (e.g. Skeffington et al, 2007). This counterintuitive result suggests that complex behaviour patterns can reduce to surprisingly low variability in model outputs.…”

Section: Model Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

Whitehead

Wilby

Battarbee

et al. 2009

Hydrological Sciences Journal

995

561

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It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.Key words climate change; water quality; rivers; catchments; lakes; estuaries; ecology; hydrochemistry Une revue des impacts potentiels du changement climatique sur la qualité des eaux de surface Résumé Il est maintenant admis qu'un certain changement climatique d'origine anthropique est inévitable. Les impacts potentiels sur l'alimentation en eau ont fait l'objet de nombreuses attentions, mais peu de connaissances sont disponibles sur les changements associés en termes de qualité de l'eau. Les changements prévus en termes de température de l'air et de précipitations pourraient affecter les écoulements des rivières et par conséquent la mobilité et la dilution des substances polluantes. Une augmentation des températures de l'eau affectera la cinétique des réactions chimiques et, par combinaison avec les dégradations de la qualité, l'état écologique des hydrosystèmes. Une augmentation des écoulements aura pour conséquences des changements dans la puissance des cours d'eau et donc aussi des charges sédimentaires qui pourront altérer la morphologie des rivières et le transfert de sédiments vers les lacs, ce qui aura des impacts sur les habitats hydrobiologiques dans les systèmes lacustres et fluviatiles. Cet article fait une revue de tels imp...

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Section: Model Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

Whitehead

Wilby

Battarbee

et al. 2009

Hydrological Sciences Journal

995

561

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…This modelling combination involves around 20-25 influential parameters, based on previous uncertainty assessments on the models used in this study (Dean et al, 2009;Futter et al, 2014;Raat et al, 2004;Rankinen et al, 2006;Whitehead et al, 2015b). However, as stated for example by Skeffington et al (2007), translating input uncertainties into uncertainty in the outputs is typically less than the summed uncertainty in the input parameters. Whitehead et al (2009) suggests that complex behaviour patterns can surprisingly reduce variability in model outputs.…”

Section: Impacts On Phytoplankton Concentrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Bussi

Whitehead

Bowes

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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Article (refereed) -postprintBussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G.; Bowes, Michael J.; Read, Daniel S.; Prudhomme, Christel; Dadson, Simon J. 2016. Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK).Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. AbstractPotential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenarioneutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England).In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.

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“…There is general agreement among researchers that the estimation of critical load is a useful tool for assessing the sensitivity of an ecosystem to acid deposition. However, the quality of input parameters to the existing critical load models needs improvement along with identification of the uncertainty in these parameters (White et al 2000;Heywood et al 2006;Skeffington et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%