Estimating the social and economic benefits of pharmaceutical innovation: modeling clinical trial results in hiv disease

Economic modeling of HIV treatments

“…As data and knowledge about HIV-treatment effects increased, it became clear that more complex approaches were needed [7], and a 'second-generation' group of models were developed [13][14][15][16]. A Markov model structure is used in all of these second-generation models, with 5-13 health states specified by CD4 cell count and viral load combinations and death.…”

“…This simplification process was performed in rather similar ways for the early HIV-economic models when our understanding of HIV disease was limited, there were few effective treatments, and life expectancy was relatively low [2]. Thus, most of the early models, although different, were based on a very similar structure with three to five health states defined by CD4 cell count, AIDS status and death [9-12].As data and knowledge about HIV-treatment effects increased, it became clear that more complex approaches were needed [7], and a 'second-generation' group of models were developed [13][14][15][16]. A Markov model structure is used in all of these second-generation models, with 5-13 health states specified by CD4 cell count and viral load combinations and death.…”