Estimating the risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in quarantine hospitals: the Egyptian example

Abstract

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, Egypt adopted a unique care model based on quarantine hospitals for Covid-19 patients, with dedicated medical teams residing in the hospital days and nights during working shifts. However, the impact of this approach on the infection risk for healthcare workers (HCWs) is uncertain.Based on data collected within two quarantine hospitals located in Cairo, Egypt, we compute the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in health-care workers (HCWs) using a model-based approach that accounts for variability in false-negative rates of RT-PCR tests. We estimate the probability for an HCW to be infected at the end of a working shift at 12.8% (95% CrI: 7.6%-19.5%) for a 2- week shift at Hospital 1, whereas a higher probability of 48.2% (95%CrI: 23.8%-74.5%) was found for a 7-day shift at Hospital 2.The large variation in the infection risk we describe between the two hospitals we studied suggests that HCWs from quarantine hospitals may face a high risk of infection, but that, with sufficient anticipation and infection control measures, this risk can be brought down to levels similar to those observed in standard healthcare settings.