Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country

Chong, Ka Chun; Fong, Henry K. W.; Zee, Benny

doi:10.1017/s0950268813002550

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Apart from influenza-like-illness, serological survey, and syndromic data, travel data can be an alternative source to timely infer the transmissibility for a new influenza pandemic. Arrival times of cases seeded by the originating country can be regarded as an integration of the number of infected individuals in the originating country and their mobility networks connecting with other regions [ 28 , 29 ]. By adapting such travel data as a proxy of the size of epidemic expansion, the transmissibility of the influenza virus can be estimated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic

Chong

Zee

Wang

2017

BMC Med Res Methodol

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BackgroundIn a new influenza pandemic, travel data such as arrival times of cases seeded by the originating country can be regarded as a combination of the epidemic size and the mobility networks of infections connecting the originating country with other regions. It can be a complete and timely source for estimating the basic reproduction number (R 0), a key indicator of disease transmissibility.MethodIn this study, we developed a likelihood-based method using arrival times of infected cases in different countries to estimate R 0 for influenza pandemics. A simulation was conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. We further applied the method to the outbreak of the influenza pandemic A/H1N1 in Mexico.ResultsIn the numerical application, the estimated R 0 was equal to 1.69 with a 95% confidence interval (1.65, 1.73). For the simulation results, the estimations were robust to the decline of travel rate and other parameter assumptions. Nevertheless, the estimates were moderately sensitive to the assumption of infectious duration. Generally, the findings were in line with other relevant studies.ConclusionsOur approach as well as the estimate is potential to assist officials in planning control and prevention measures. Improved coordination to streamline or even centralize surveillance of imported cases among countries will thus be beneficial to public health.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic

Chong

Zee

Wang

2017

BMC Med Res Methodol

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“…At that time, the government and public health organizations still lacked the knowledge of early detection and the importance of prompt reporting. When cases increased throughout April 2009, awareness about early detection and the implementation of effective control measures increased [ 232 ]. A similar situation arose during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, which revealed shortcomings in the national and international capacity to detect, monitor and respond to infectious disease outbreaks.…”

Section: Lessons Learned From the Covid-19 Pandemic And Other Viramentioning

confidence: 99%

Viral Pandemics of the Last Four Decades: Pathophysiology, Health Impacts and Perspectives

Roychoudhury

Das

Sengupta

et al. 2020

IJERPH

104

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The last four decades has witnessed some of the deadliest viral pandemics with far-reaching consequences. These include the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) (1981), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) (2002), Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A/H1N1) (2009), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) (2012), Ebola virus (2013) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) (2019-present). Age- and gender-based characterizations suggest that SARS-CoV-2 resembles SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV with regard to higher fatality rates in males, and in the older population with comorbidities. The invasion-mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, involves binding of its spike protein with angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors; MERS-CoV utilizes dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4), whereas H1N1 influenza is equipped with hemagglutinin protein. The viral infections-mediated immunomodulation, and progressive inflammatory state may affect the functions of several other organs. Although no effective commercial vaccine is available for any of the viruses, those against SARS-CoV-2 are being developed at an unprecedented speed. Until now, only Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine has received temporary authorization from the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Given the frequent emergence of viral pandemics in the 21st century, proper understanding of their characteristics and modes of action are essential to address the immediate and long-term health consequences.

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“…Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has adopted aggressive measures to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by identifying the early cases arriving in the USA from affected countries (Patel and Jernigan, 2020). During H1N1 epidemic, early incident rates were not properly reported by the officials in Mexico which resulted in steep increase in infected cases during the latter part of the year (WHO, 2009;Chong et al, 2014). Similar situation arose during Ebola outbreak when national and international shortcomings of early disease detection fueled the emergence of public health crisis (Woolhouse et al, 2015).…”

Section: Lessons Learned From the Viral Epidemicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Viral Pandemics of Twenty-First Century

Roychoudhury¹,

Das²,

Sengupta³

et al. 2021

J microb biotech food sci

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Pandemics are regarded as large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that has the potential to significantly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographical area, which is accompanied by economic, social and political disruption. The likelihood of pandemic, especially caused by viral infectious diseases has increased over the past few years. The 21st century is just two decades old but it has already witnessed some of the deadliest viral pandemics having far-reaching consequences. These include Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) (2002), Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (H1N1) (2009), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) (2012) and Ebola virus (2013) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) (2019-present). The viruses may adopt various mechanisms to invade and hijack the cellular machinery of the host cell, followed by infection-mediated immunomodulation and progressive inflammation, which in turn, may affect the functioning of different organ systems of the body. Although effective commercial vaccines are unavailable for most of these viruses, those against SARS-CoV-2 are being developed at an unprecedented speed with few of the vaccines already being approved for commercial distribution. Significant policy attention is required to limit the outbreak of such pandemics and to expand and sustain investment to build preparedness and health capacity.

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Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country

Cited by 11 publications

References 27 publications

A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic

A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic

Viral Pandemics of the Last Four Decades: Pathophysiology, Health Impacts and Perspectives

Viral Pandemics of Twenty-First Century

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