Estimating the impacts of climate change on crop yields and N2O emissions for conventional and no-tillage in Southwestern Ontario, Canada

He, Wentian; Yang, Jingyi; Drury, C. F.; Smith, Ward; Grant, Brian; He, Ping; Qian, Budong; Zhou, Wei; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.025

Cited by 78 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Results for CC ( R 2 = 0.40 and EF = 0.35, Table 1) were better than previously reported for Woodslee by Liu et al (2010) ( R 2 = 0.36 and EF = −0.70) with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)‐Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)‐Maize model. Simulations over shorter time periods (4–6 yr) have shown better agreement with observed yield for the Woodslee site (Liu et al, 2014; He et al, 2017). However, our RMSE values are slightly better than obtained with the crop model BioStar in Germany (2.1 Mg ha −1 ) for corn yield (Bauböck, 2014).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…The DNDC model has been tested for its ability to predict soil temperature, soil water content, soil N content, and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions at experimental sites in eastern and western Canada (Smith et al, 2002, 2008). It has also been employed in multimodel comparisons for crop production and N 2 O emissions (Ehrhardt et al, 2017) and C dynamics (Smith et al, 2012, Grant et al, 2016), along with assessing the effects of climate change on crop production (Smith et al, 2013, He et al, 2017). These investigations have prompted the development of improved model processes for the Canadian version of DNDC (DNDC v.CAN) including crop biomass growth (Kröbel et al, 2011), evapotranspiration (Dutta et al, 2016b), soil temperature (Dutta et al, 2017), ammonia volatilization after slurry application (Congreves et al, 2016), and ammonia emissions after urea application (Dutta et al, 2016a).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The scenarios include a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and one scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5) based on radiative forcing levels of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W m −2 by the end of the 21st century, respectively (van Vuuren et al, 2011; IPCC, 2014). He et al (2017) considered two contrasting scenarios, the intermediate RCP4.5 and high RCP8.5, as appropriate 21st century pathways for predicting crop yields and soil greenhouse gas emissions. No study to date has assessed future corn yield and SOC trends under these contrasting scenarios.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Long‐term Trends in Corn Yields and Soil Carbon under Diversified Crop Rotations

et al. 2018

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Agricultural practices such as including perennial alfalfa ( L.), winter wheat ( L.), or red clover ( L.) in corn ( L.) rotations can provide higher crop yields and increase soil organic C (SOC) over time. How well process-based biogeochemical models such as DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) capture the beneficial effects of diversified cropping systems is unclear. To calibrate and validate DNDC for simulation of observed trends in corn yield and SOC, we used long-term trials: continuous corn (CC) and corn-oats ( L.)-alfalfa-alfalfa (COAA) for Woodslee, ON, 1959 to 2015; and CC, corn-corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.]-soybean (CCSS), corn-corn-soybean-winter wheat (CCSW), corn-corn-soybean-winter wheat + red clover (CCSW+Rc), and corn-corn-alfalfa-alfalfa (CCAA) for Elora, ON, 1981 to 2015. Yield and SOC under 21st century conditions were projected under future climate scenarios from 2016 to 2100. The DNDC model was calibrated to improve crop N stress and was revised to estimate changes in water availability as a function of soil properties. This improved yield estimates for diversified rotations at Elora (mean absolute prediction error [MAPE] decreased from 13.4-15.5 to 10.9-14.6%) with lower errors for the three most diverse rotations. Significant improvements in yield estimates were also simulated at Woodslee for COAA, with MAPE decreasing from 24.0 to 16.6%. Predicted and observed SOC were in agreement for simpler rotations (CC or CCSS) at both sites (53.8 and 53.3 Mg C ha for Elora, 52.0 and 51.4 Mg C ha for Woodslee). Predicted SOC increased due to rotation diversification and was close to observed values (58.4 and 59 Mg C ha for Elora, 63 and 61.1 Mg C ha for Woodslee). Under future climate scenarios the diversified rotations mitigated crop water stress resulting in trends of higher yields and SOC content in comparison to simpler rotations.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 80%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Long‐term Trends in Corn Yields and Soil Carbon under Diversified Crop Rotations

et al. 2018

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“…Soil NO 3 -contents were relatively well predicted particularly for wheat in NT and CT, whereas soil NO 3 -contents in vetch were underestimated in NT and CT. These inaccuracies in soil N mineral content were previously observed by He et al (2017) and Abdalla et al (2014). They explained that the poor DNDC model performance of soil mineral N was due to the flaws in soil water balance module (a simple cascade approach) that could affect the water and nutrient upward flow and downward infiltration, especially under dry soil conditions where preferential flow through cracks can occur after rainfall when soil was dry.…”

Section: Crop Yield and Yield-scaled N 2 O Emissions In Conservation mentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Recently, He et al, (2017) reported that the DNDC model overestimated the SWC for NT and CT treatments in a clay loam soil during dry conditions, due to the incapacity of DNDC model to transport preferential water flow into the soil profile through clay cracks (Uzoma et al, 2015). Also, …”

Section: Evaluation Of Soil Water Contentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenhouse gas emissions in conservation and conventional agriculture systems under rainfed mediterranean agro-ecosystem

Río¹

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Assessing the long‐term effects of conservation agriculture on cotton production in Northeast Louisiana using the denitrification–decomposition model

Ferdush,

Jeong,

Jeon

et al. 2024

Agrosystems Geosci & Env

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Conservation agriculture (CA) aims to sustain agricultural production, soil, and environmental health in agroecosystems and has been promoted throughout the United States. The adoption of CA in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) systems provides both agronomic and environmental benefits. Yet, there is limited information on the long‐term effects of CA practices on crop yield and adaptation strategies. An integrated CA system, that is, cover crops with no‐tillage (NT) instead of conventional agriculture, was implemented in the long‐term field experiments and assessed with an integrated biogeochemical model. Using the denitrification–decomposition model, this study estimated the effects of four different cover crops, for example, native grass (NG), hairy vetch (Vicia villosa), winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum), on cotton yield under four different nitrogen (N) levels (e.g., 0, 50, 100, and 150 kg N/ha) and estimated responses on carbon (C) sequestration, and ecosystem functionality over a 10‐year study. The NT‐NG 50 N was used as a calibration dataset to accurately estimate the cotton lint yield with a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 21% and model efficiency of 0.3. The calibration data validated the effects of hairy vetch, winter wheat, and crimson clover under the NT‐50 N with NRMSE of 24%, 21%, and 25%, respectively. According to the scenario analysis, the 50 kg N/ha application with a single‐irrigation event (10‐cm depth) was most beneficial for maximizing the cotton yield with cover crop incorporation at the NT system over the long term. The effects of increasing cover crop biomass (i.e., double seed rate) on C content, regardless of N application rates, varied based on the relationship between the main and cover crop species. Besides, the furrow plow tillage system provided efficient C sequestration. The proposed approach stands to provide agricultural and environmental sustainability with the implementation of cover crop or crop residue incorporation instead of increased N application, seed rates, and irrigation events under NT practices.

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Estimating the impacts of climate change on crop yields and N2O emissions for conventional and no-tillage in Southwestern Ontario, Canada

Cited by 78 publications

References 57 publications

Long‐term Trends in Corn Yields and Soil Carbon under Diversified Crop Rotations

Long‐term Trends in Corn Yields and Soil Carbon under Diversified Crop Rotations

Greenhouse gas emissions in conservation and conventional agriculture systems under rainfed mediterranean agro-ecosystem

Assessing the long‐term effects of conservation agriculture on cotton production in Northeast Louisiana using the denitrification–decomposition model

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