Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model

Jong, Pieter de; Barreto, Tarssio Brito; Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza; Kouloukoui, Daniel; Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla Patrícia; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo Andrade

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.086

Cited by 72 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…More specifically, wind power decreases are reported particularly for southern Europe [46][47][48] , while slight increases in wind power are projected for central and northern Europe 48 . Some regional studies found a low probability of wind power changes for South Africa 41 , whereas others reported favourable future wind power conditions for parts of the United States and Brazil [51][52][53][54][55] . However, a recent global study showed increasing wind energy potential in the Southern hemisphere in general 7 .…”

Section: Impacts On Energy Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios

et al. 2020

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Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.

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Section: Impacts On Energy Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios

et al. 2020

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“…Although there is large uncertainty intrinsic to these climate projections, their effect on future estimates of hydropower potential is manifested in terms of a strong regional variability of impacts from gains in Uruguay and the southernmost basins of Brazil to losses in northern Brazil, Colombia, northern South America, Argentina, and southern South America 20 , 43 – 45 . The limited literature focusing on LAC suggests increased wind and solar resource potentials in Brazil 43 , 46 – 48 , and, possibly, a positive general response of the main LAC bioenergy feedstock, sugarcane, to regional climatic changes 42 . For more details see Supplementary Note 1 (which briefly reviews main climate-attributable effects on RE alongside anticipated impacts for LAC).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

et al. 2021

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Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

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“…Moreover, it was found that the northern part of the sea is more appropriate for energy extraction owing to its shallow water and a higher magnitude of the energy. Viviescas et al (2019) and de Jong et al (2019) explored future variability in renewable energies of wind and solar resources in Latin America and Brazil, respectively. The results showed that climate change may affect the energy resources negatively, even though for some regions, such as the north-east of Brazil, an increasing trend for both solar and wind energy resources was projected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling climate change impact on wind power resources using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

Nabipour

Mosavi

Hajnal

et al. 2020

Engineering Applications of Computational Fluid Mechanics

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Climate change impacts and adaptations are ongoing issues that are attracting the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable development and management of the energy. In this study, spatial variation of wind power density at the turbine hub-height and its variability under future climatic scenarios are taken into consideration. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based post-processing technique was used to match the power outputs of the regional climate model (RCM) with those obtained from reference data. The near-surface wind data obtained from an RCM were used to investigate climate change impacts on the wind power resources in the Caspian Sea. After converting nearsurface wind speed to turbine hub-height speed and computation of wind power density, the results were investigated to reveal mean annual power, seasonal and monthly variability for 20 year historical (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) and future (2081-2100) periods. The results revealed that climate change does not notably affect the wind climate over the study area. However, a small decrease was projected in the future simulation, revealing a slight decrease in mean annual wind power in the future compared to historical simulations. Moreover, the results demonstrated strong variation in wind power in terms of temporal and spatial distribution, with winter and summer having the highest values.The results indicate that the middle and northern parts of the Caspian Sea have the highest values of wind power. However, the results of the post-processing technique using the ANFIS model showed that the real potential of wind power in the area is lower than that projected in the RCM. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model

Cited by 72 publications

References 24 publications

Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios

Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Modeling climate change impact on wind power resources using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

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