Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

Abstract

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

Estimating the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of common minke whales integrating local adaptation

“…The current distributed locations of the NPP facilitate it crossing the Bering Sea to colonize new habitats in the Arctic Ocean, indicating future habitat expansion. Previous studies have detected poleward shifts in many terrestrial and marine species in response to climate change (e.g., Hällfors et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2020;Abe et al, 2021;Fu et al, 2021), consistent with the findings of this study.…”

“…Species distribution models (SDMs) describe the relationships between georeferenced species distribution data (e.g., presence, abundance) and simultaneously available environmental predictors and have been extensively used in estimating the habitat suitability of species (e.g., Robinson et al, 2017;Zhang et al, 2020;Fu et al, 2021;Soultan et al, 2022). Constructed SDMs can be applied to predict the future range of species when the environmental predictors can be projected by global climate models under the different assumptions of representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (Moss et al, 2010).…”

“…Constructed SDMs can be applied to predict the future range of species when the environmental predictors can be projected by global climate models under the different assumptions of representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (Moss et al, 2010). SDMs are commonly constructed at the species level under the assumption of "niche conservatism" (e.g., Dormann, 2007;Araújo and Peterson, 2012;Chen et al, 2021;Fu et al, 2021;Zhang et al, 2021). This assumption suggests that the individuals belonging to the same species have a similar niche space and demonstrate a consistent response to climate change across the species' entire distributional range.…”

Bioclimatic projection of the ecological niche of curly mallow (Malva verticillata) based on the forecast of the dynamics of the geographical range in the context of global climate change

“…Temperature has been proven to be a factor that directly or indirectly affects many species over large areas (Root et al, 2003). Based on the information on the impact of climatic factors of the environment at present and forecast estimates of climatic conditions, it is possible to estimate trends in the distribution of the species in the near future (Fu et al, 2021).…”

Unveiling the Suitable Habitats and Conservation Gaps of Tridacna maxima in the Indo-Pacific Core Area Based on Species Distribution Model

“…In comparison to terrestrial communities, marine communities are more susceptible to environmental changes induced by climate change (Sorte et al, 2010a;Sorte et al, 2010b). As a species occupies a specific ecological niche, modifications in the attached environmental conditions can disrupt the distribution of that species (Faleiro et al, 2018;Fu et al, 2021). Given these circumstances, comprehending the impact of future climate change on species distribution is vital for effective species conservation.…”