Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model

Kaushal, Shaurya; Singh, Rajput, Abhineet; Bhattacharya, S.; Vidyasagar, M.; Kumar, Aloke; Prakash, Meher K.; Ansumali, Santosh

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0242132

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…As HCWs represent a model for the general public, they may either be instrumental in overcoming vaccine hesitancy [ 61 ], or improperly spread false beliefs and misconceptions that may be eventually detrimental to global efforts to achieve high vaccination rates as soon as possible [ 12 , 13 , 32 , 34 ]. As highly diffusive new VoC of SARS-CoV-2 are rapidly raising the bar for the herd immunity threshold [ 62 , 63 ], vaccine hesitancy among HCWs, particularly OPs, may be a significant impediment in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mandate or Not Mandate: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Italian Occupational Physicians towards SARS-CoV-2 Immunization at the Beginning of Vaccination Campaign

et al. 2021

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Vaccinations used to prevent coronavirus disease (COVID-19)—the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)—are critical in order to contain the ongoing pandemic. However, SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 vaccination rates have only slowly increased since the beginning of the vaccination campaign, even with at-risk workers (e.g., HCWs), presumptively because of vaccine hesitancy. Vaccination mandates are considered instrumental in order to rapidly improve immunization rates (but they minimize the impact of vaccination campaigns). In this study, we investigated the acceptance (i.e., knowledge, attitudes, and practices) from occupational physicians (OPs)) in regard to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 vaccination mandates. A total of 166 OPs participated in an internet-based survey by completing structured questionnaires. Adequate, general knowledge of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 was found in the majority of OPs. High perception of SARS-CoV-2 risk was found in around 80% of participants (79.5% regarding its occurrence, 81.9% regarding its potential severity). SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 vaccination was endorsed by 90.4% of respondents, acceptance for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine was quite larger for mRNA formulates (89.8%) over adenoviral ones (59.8%). Endorsement of vaccination mandates was reported by 60.2% of respondents, and was more likely endorsed by OPs who exhibited higher concern for SARS-CoV-2 infection occurrence (odds ratio 3.462, 95% confidence intervals 1.060–11.310), who were likely to accept some sort of payment/copayment for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 vaccination (3.896; 1.607; 9.449), or who were more likely to believe HCWs not vaccinates against SARS-CoV-2 as unfit for work (4.562; 1.935; 10.753). In conclusion, OPs exhibited wide acceptance of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 vaccinations, and the majority endorsed vaccination mandates for HCWs, which may help improve vaccination rates in occupational settings.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mandate or Not Mandate: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Italian Occupational Physicians towards SARS-CoV-2 Immunization at the Beginning of Vaccination Campaign

et al. 2021

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“…Even more, there is not a clear definition of the proportion of population vaccinated and infected in a given time, which is necessary to reach the “heard immunity”. Some publications have indicated this may be as low as 10-25% ( Kaushal et al, 2020 ), while others as high as 60-70% ( Gomes et al, 2020 , Silva et al, 2020 ). But again, beyond that, given the high levels found of seroprevalence, no further cases should be in those areas, but still COVID-19 transmission and cases occur.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High seroprevalence for SARS-CoV-2 infection in South America, but still not enough for herd immunity!

Núñez-Zapata¹,

Benites-Peralta²,

Mayta‐Tristán³

et al. 2021

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

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“…[4,5] Population immunity threshold estimates for SARS-CoV-2 have ranged from 50% to 83%. [6][7][8] The threshold is likely even higher for variants that are more infectious than the original wild type, and therefore, have a higher reproductive number; Delta has an estimated population immunity threshold as high as 80%-90%. [9,10] Progress toward this threshold can be affected by the timing and extent of transmission patterns in different geographic areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While several studies have speculated how close the US may be to reaching SARS-CoV-2 population immunity, few have attempted to robustly calculate presumed immunity percentages by state. [6,7,9,11,12] Population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 will result from both immunity from vaccination and immunity from natural infection; however, monitoring population immunity has largely been based on vaccination rates alone. Routine surveillance data on infections and vaccinations, while imperfect, can be used to provide an estimate of progress toward various immunity thresholds by estimating the percentages of vaccinated or infected persons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of presumed population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 by state in the United States, August 2021

Stoner¹,

Angulo

Rhea

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: Information is needed to monitor progress toward a level of population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 sufficient to disrupt viral transmission. We estimated the percentage of the United States (US) population with presumed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 due to vaccination, natural infection, or both as of August 26, 2021. Methods: Publicly available data as of August 26, 2021, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were used to calculate presumed population immunity by state. Seroprevalence data were used to estimate the percentage of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, with adjustments for underreporting. Vaccination coverage data for both fully and partially vaccinated persons were used to calculate presumed immunity from vaccination. Finally, we estimated the percentage of the total population in each state with presumed immunity to SARS-CoV-2, with a sensitivity analysis to account for waning immunity, and compared these estimates to a range of population immunity thresholds. Results: Presumed population immunity varied among states (43.1% to 70.6%), with 19 states with 60% or less of their population having been infected or vaccinated. Four states have presumed immunity greater than thresholds estimated to be sufficient to disrupt transmission of less infectious variants (67%), and none were greater than the threshold estimated for more infectious variants (78% or higher). Conclusions: The US remains a distance below the threshold sufficient to disrupt viral transmission, with some states remarkably low. As more infectious variants emerge, it is critical that vaccination efforts intensify across all states and ages for which the vaccines are approved.

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Estimating the herd immunity threshold by accounting for the hidden asymptomatics using a COVID-19 specific model

Cited by 15 publications

References 19 publications

Mandate or Not Mandate: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Italian Occupational Physicians towards SARS-CoV-2 Immunization at the Beginning of Vaccination Campaign

Mandate or Not Mandate: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Italian Occupational Physicians towards SARS-CoV-2 Immunization at the Beginning of Vaccination Campaign

High seroprevalence for SARS-CoV-2 infection in South America, but still not enough for herd immunity!

Estimates of presumed population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 by state in the United States, August 2021

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