Estimating the Global Economic Cost of Violence: Methodology Improvement and Estimate Updates

Iqbal, Mohib; Bardwell, Harrison; Hammond, David

doi:10.1080/10242694.2019.1689485

Cited by 26 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…There was a noteworthy post-9/11 increase in hostage taking, again indicative of terrorists seeking alternative funding sources. 12 Next, we turn to the pie charts in figures 7A and 7B that show the changing regional patterns of transnational terrorism attacks for the pre-and the post-9/11 periods. Following 9/11, figures 7A and 7B indicate that the share of transnational terror- 12 Some of the reason for the low pre-9/11 hostage-taking percentage is due to GTD undercounting these incidents-PGIS customers' were foreign corporations that cared little about the abduction of domestic individuals.…”

Section: The Evolving Threat Of Terrorism Since 1968mentioning

confidence: 99%

What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11

Gaibulloev

Sandler²

2019

Journal of Economic Literature

157

126

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This overview examines critically the post-9/11 empirical literature on terrorism. Major contributions by both economists and political scientists are included. We focus on five main themes: the changing nature of terrorism, the organization of terrorist groups, the effectiveness of counterterrorism policies, modern drivers or causes of terrorism, and the economic consequences of terrorism. In so doing, we investigate a host of questions that include: How do terrorist groups attract and retain members? What determines the survival of terrorist groups? Is poverty a root cause of terrorism? What counterterrorism measures work best? In the latter regard, we find that many counterterrorism policies have unintended negative consequences owing to attack transference and terrorist backlash. This suggests the need for novel policies such as service provision to counter some terrorist groups’ efforts to provide such services. Despite terrorists’ concerted efforts to damage targeted countries’ economies, the empirical literature shows that terrorism has had little or no effect on economic growth or GDP except in small terrorism-plagued countries. At the sectoral level, terrorism can adversely affect tourism and foreign direct investment, but these effects are rather transient and create transference of activities to other sectors, thus cushioning the consequences. (JEL F21, F52, H56, K42, Z31)

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Section: The Evolving Threat Of Terrorism Since 1968mentioning

confidence: 99%

What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11

Gaibulloev

Sandler²

2019

Journal of Economic Literature

157

126

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“…Global figures quantifying the impact of the pandemic on gender-based and domestic violence are not yet available. However, early reports from some fragile contexts suggest an increase in cases over the months preceding the pandemic and specifically in Liberia (Mulbah, 2020[42]), Kenya (International Rescue Committee, 2020 [43]) and Honduras (International Rescue Committee, 2020 [44]). The reported case numbers are likely underestimates, as women generally are less able to report incidents due to challenges such as movement restrictions, lockdowns and fear (International Rescue Committee, 2020 [43]).…”

Section: Box 11 Conflict Prevention and Coronavirus (Covid-19)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, early reports from some fragile contexts suggest an increase in cases over the months preceding the pandemic and specifically in Liberia (Mulbah, 2020[42]), Kenya (International Rescue Committee, 2020 [43]) and Honduras (International Rescue Committee, 2020 [44]). The reported case numbers are likely underestimates, as women generally are less able to report incidents due to challenges such as movement restrictions, lockdowns and fear (International Rescue Committee, 2020 [43]). Evidence from previous crises, such as the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014-15, suggests that confinement leads to increased violence against women and children (OECD, 2020 [45]).…”

Section: Box 11 Conflict Prevention and Coronavirus (Covid-19)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Conflict prevention in fragile contexts

Desai¹

2020

OECD Development Co-Operation Working Papers

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This document, as well as any data and any map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this paper as Desai, H. "Conflict prevention in fragile contexts" OECD Development Cooperation Working Papers, No 78 OECD Publishing, Paris.

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“…Ample evidence shows that political instability, social strife and unrest, civil disorder and conflict, terrorism, intra and interstate wars exert a negative effect on the economy (inter alia: Bozzoli et al, 2010;Iqbal et al, 2021;Smith, 2014). Such events abruptly and violently disrupt the normal, daily routine of economic and social life.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The nexus between social unrest and economic growth in Middle East and Central Asia countries

Kollias

2022

REPS

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Purpose Conflict and civil strife adversely affect the economy since it severely disrupts the normal, daily routine of economic activity. Similarly, economic downturns can trigger discontent that has the potential to escalate into social unrest and strife. Using the recently compiled index on social unrest (RSUI) of Barrett et al. (2020), the paper sets out to examine the nexus between economic growth and social unrest in the case of 29 Middle East and Central Asia countries over the period 2000–2018.Design/methodology/approach To probe into the issue at hand, the paper adopts a panel causality approach. To this effect, two panel causality tests are used. The first is the heterogeneous panel causality model proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) is employed. The second panel Granger causality test is the frequency domain causality test constructed by Breitung and Candelon (2006) and extended for panel testing by Croux and Reusens (2013).Findings The results of the causality tests indicate a strong bidirectional nexus between civil unrest and economic growth. The findings support the contention that civil strife adversely affects economic performance and economic downturns can trigger discontent and unrest.Research limitations/implications Albeit consistent and robust, the results reported herein concern the specific sample of countries under scrutiny. Extending the analysis to other groups of countries will offer better insights into the nexus between civil unrest and economic performance.Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the present paper is the first to address the nexus between social unrest and economic growth for this group of countries using the recently compiled index on social unrest (RSUI).

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Estimating the Global Economic Cost of Violence: Methodology Improvement and Estimate Updates

Cited by 26 publications

References 24 publications

What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11

What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11

Conflict prevention in fragile contexts

The nexus between social unrest and economic growth in Middle East and Central Asia countries

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