Abstract:We estimate the effects of the Syrian civil war using a synthetic control method which is based on a counterfactual scenario of an absence of the armed conflict that has led to the humanitarian crisis and one of the largest population displacements without a precedent in modern history. By comparing Syria’s growth and development trajectories with the characteristics of a set of sixty-six countries with no armed internal conflict between 1996 and 2021, we can deduce a series of gaps in economic growth, human d… Show more
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