Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Rees, Eleanor M.; Waterlow, Naomi R.; Lowe, Rachel; Kucharski, Adam J.

doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.1

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 52 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We estimated that anti-S IgG antibodies had a half-life of 1.47–3.15 years in children, and 2.57–5.33 years in adults, consistent with previous reports for other coronaviruses [8,22–27]. Based on these data, we assumed prior estimates for seroreversion rates of 0.3–1.4 year −1 in children and 0.2–0.7 year −1 in adults, consistent with estimates of 0.9–3.8 year −1 published by Rees et al [ 7 ]. However, after we fit serocatalytic models to the cross-sectional SeroPed data, our posterior median estimates for the half-life of seroreversion were in the range 13–33 years in children and 7–68 years in adults, substantially longer than prior estimates.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Seroepidemiology of the Seasonal Human Coronaviruses NL63, 229E, OC43 and HKU1 in France

Thoisy

Woudenberg

Donnadieu

et al. 2023

Open Forum Infectious Diseases

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background The seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) NL63, 229E, OC43 and HKU1, are endemic throughout the world, yet the majority of HCoV infections remain undiagnosed. Serology can reliably identify individuals previously infected with HCoVs. Methods In a cross-sectional seroprevalence study, 2,389 serum samples were collected from children and adults requiring hospital admission in France in 2020. In a separate longitudinal cohort study, 2,520 samples were collected from 898 individuals in a French town followed between April 2020 and December 2021. Antibodies to HCoVs were measured using a bead-based multiplex assay. Serological data from the longitudinal cohort was analyzed to estimate the rate of antibody waning. Age-stratified seroprevalence data from the cross-sectional cohort was analyzed using sero-catalytic models to estimate HCoV force of infection. Results The rate of waning of anti-HCoV Spike IgG antibodies was estimated to be in the range 0.22–0.47 year-1 for children, and 0.13–0.27 year-1 for adults. Sero-reversion, the process where individuals become sero-negative when antibody levels wane below a sero-positivity cut-off, was estimated to occur at a rate: 0.31–1.37 year-1 in children, and 0.19–0.72 year-1 in adults. The estimated sero-conversion rate in children was in the range 0.22–0.50 year-1, equivalent to 20% – 39% of children getting infected every year with each HCoV. Conclusions Antibodies to HCoVs in French children and adults are consistent with these viruses being at endemic equilibrium. The high force of infection in children indicates that HCoVs may be responsible for a substantial proportion of fever episodes experienced by children.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

“…Serology, based on the detection of antibodies induced by previous infections, has been frequently used to measure population-level HCoV transmission [ 7 ]. As with SARS-CoV-2, the most immunodominant antigens for the 4 HCoVs are spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Seroepidemiology of the Seasonal Human Coronaviruses NL63, 229E, OC43 and HKU1 in France

Thoisy

Woudenberg

Donnadieu

et al. 2023

Open Forum Infectious Diseases

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since previous work has shown that the annual risk of infection and the seroreversion rate often cannot be reliably estimated from cross-sectional seroprevalence data simultaneously due to identifiability issues [ 18 ], we used our empirical estimate for the rate of seroreversion in Model 2. For both models, we initially considered infection risk to be constant across age and time, then, to reflect apparent differences in the rate of change of seroprevalence in children and adults in our data, we repeated model fitting whilst allowing the risk to be different in adults than in children as implemented previously [ 27 , 28 ]. We varied the age at which risk of infection changed between 12 and 36 years to conservatively cover the transition into adulthood.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual risk of hepatitis E virus infection and seroreversion: Insights from a serological cohort in Sitakunda, Bangladesh

Dighe,

Khan,

Bhuiyan

et al. 2024

Epidemiol. Infect.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a major cause of acute jaundice in South Asia. Gaps in our understanding of transmission are driven by non-specific symptoms and scarcity of diagnostics, impeding rational control strategies. In this context, serological data can provide important proxy measures of infection. We enrolled a population-representative serological cohort of 2,337 individuals in Sitakunda, Bangladesh. We estimated the annual risks of HEV infection and seroreversion both using serostatus changes between paired serum samples collected 9 months apart, and by fitting catalytic models to the age-stratified cross-sectional seroprevalence. At baseline, 15% (95 CI: 14-17%) of people were seropositive, with seroprevalence highest in the relatively urban south. During the study, 27 individuals seroreverted (annual seroreversion risk: 15%, 95 CI: 10-21%), and 38 seroconverted (annual infection risk: 3%, 95CI: 2-5%). Relying on cross-sectional seroprevalence data alone, and ignoring seroreversion, underestimated the annual infection risk five-fold (0.6%, 95 CrI: 0.5-0.6%). When we accounted for the observed seroreversion in a reversible catalytic model, infection risk was more consistent with measured seroincidence. Our results quantify HEV infection risk in Sitakunda and highlight the importance of accounting for seroreversion when estimating infection incidence from cross-sectional seroprevalence data.

show abstract

“…Bayesian estimation was applied throughout the following analyses [ 9 ]. For selection of the priors in the first part, we referred to 2 previous reports: using the best fitted MSIS model, Nyiro et al [ 19 ] estimated the FoI for 0- to 1-year-olds and for 1- to 12-year-olds as 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], .65–.97) and 1.69 (95% CI, 1.27–2.04) per year, respectively, and Nakajo and Nishiura [ 15 ] estimated the FoI for primary and secondary infection as 0.12 per month (95% CI, .07–.18) and 0.05 per month (95% CI, 0.04–0.06), respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Age-Dependent Risk of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: A Systematic Review and Hazard Modeling From Serological Data

Nakajo

Nishiura

2023

The Journal of Infectious Diseases

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background There is no immunization campaign that currently exist for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Seroprevalence studies are critical for assessing epidemiological dynamics before and during an immunization program. A systematic literature review was conducted to summarize the evidence from seroprevalence studies on RSV. Methods A systematic search of age-dependent RSV seroprevalence was conducted using the PubMed database and EMBASE. Age-dependent force of infections (FoI) and the decay rate of immunity were estimated. A mixture finite model was employed, estimating the age-dependent disease state and the antibody concentrations in susceptible and infected/recovered populations. Results Twenty-one studies were identified from 15 countries, with studies using ELISA being the most represented. Employing a catalytic model, the age-dependent force of infection was estimated to be the lowest in infants aged 6 months to 1 year and increased in older age groups. The proportion ever-infected/recovered was estimated to be above 90% by 3 years of age. Conclusions The number of seroprevalence studies covering a broad range of ages are limited. The age-dependent FoI indicated that the risk of infection was greatest among those aged >5 years. Additional empirical data that use valid assays are required to fully describe the transmission dynamics of RSV infection.

show abstract

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Cited by 6 publications

References 52 publications

Seroepidemiology of the Seasonal Human Coronaviruses NL63, 229E, OC43 and HKU1 in France

Seroepidemiology of the Seasonal Human Coronaviruses NL63, 229E, OC43 and HKU1 in France

Annual risk of hepatitis E virus infection and seroreversion: Insights from a serological cohort in Sitakunda, Bangladesh

Age-Dependent Risk of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: A Systematic Review and Hazard Modeling From Serological Data

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About