Estimating the distribution and productivity characters of Larix kaempferi in response to climate change

Wu, Chen; Chen, Dongsheng; Shen, Jiapeng; Sun, Xiaomei; Zhang, Shougong

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111633

Cited by 19 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This may also be related to the excessive Percent Contribution (PC) of bio6 (PC is 36.86%, ranking second), because the main role of this factor may be to limit the northward migration of species. The suitable areas of many endangered plants such as Thuja sutchuenensis [77] and Larix kaempferi [78] all showed significant shrinkage in the future, which was consistent with the conclusion of this study.…”

Section: The Change Pattern Of Potential Distribution Areasupporting

confidence: 91%

Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2022

Forests

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Glyptostrobus pensilis is a critically endangered living fossil plant species of the Mesozoic era, with high scientific research and economic value. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on the potential habitat area of G. pensilis in East Asia. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model optimized by the ENMeval data package was used to simulate the potential distribution habitats of G. pensilis since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). The results showed that the optimized MaxEnt model has a high prediction accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9843 ± 0.005. The current highly suitable habitats were found in the northeast of Jiangxi, the east of Fujian; the main climatic factors affecting the geographic distribution of G. pensilis are temperature and precipitation, with precipitation as the dominant factor. The minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6) may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of G. pensilis; during the LIG, it contracted greatly in the highly suitable habitat area. In the 2070s, the suitable distribution area will move northward and the area of highly suitable habitat will increase. Seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation may be important climatic factors causing the changes in geographic distribution. The results will provide a theoretical basis for the management and resource protection of G. pensilis.

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Section: The Change Pattern Of Potential Distribution Areasupporting

confidence: 91%

Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2022

Forests

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“…The plantation areas of L. kaempferi gradually increased approximately 10-fold over the past decade across South Korea, and the planted area in 2019 accounted for approximately 20% (4559 ha) of the total plantation area [31]. Larix kaempferi is an important fast-growing deciduous coniferous species encircling the Northern Hemisphere, due to its disease and cold resistance compared to other species [17,[30][31][32][33][34]. In general, drought stress is considered a main factor causing a decline in larch tree species [10,32,33], whereas saturated soil water conditions may also adversely affect photosynthetic activity and stomatal conductance [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, drought stress is considered a main factor causing a decline in larch tree species [10,32,33], whereas saturated soil water conditions may also adversely affect photosynthetic activity and stomatal conductance [18]. A few previous studies suggested a high risk of growth cessation in similar larch species such as Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr planted across large areas in north-central China during extreme drought [10], and quantitative changes in the distribution and productivity of L. kaempferi under future climate change were predicted [34]. However, the growth responses of L. kaempferi seedlings to multiple factors of extreme climate have not been examined, even though this would be required to understand how climate change will affect successful planting in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Growth Responses of Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr. Seedling to Short-Term Extreme Climate Events in Summer

Noh

Kim

Son

et al. 2021

Forests

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Extreme climate events such as heat waves, drought, and heavy rainfall are occurring more frequently and are more intense due to ongoing climate change. This study evaluated the early growth performance of one-year-old Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr. seedlings under open-field extreme climate conditions including experimental warming and different precipitation regimes. We recorded the survival rate, root collar diameter, height, biomass, shoot-to-root ratio, and seedling quality index using nine treatments (three temperature levels, i.e., control, warming by 3 °C and by 6 °C, × three precipitation levels, i.e., control, drought, and heavy rainfall) in July and August 2020. The survival rate of seedlings did not differ between treatments, showing high values exceeding 94% across treatments. The measured shoot height was largest under warming by 3 °C and high rainfall, indicating that moderate warming increased seedling height growth in a moist environment. Heavy rainfall decreased stem volume by 21% and 25% under control and warming by 6 °C treatments, respectively. However, drought manipulation using rain-out shelters did not decrease the growth performance. Overall, extreme climate events did not affect the survival rate, biomass, shoot-to-root ratio, and seedling quality index of L. kaempferi. We thus conclude that, regarding growth responses, L. kaempferi seedlings may be resistant to short-term extreme warming and drought events during summer.

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“…Precipitation will decrease by about 10% in subtropical China over the next century. Climate factors, such as temperature and precipitation, affect forest productivity, plant physiology, and community composition through the specific climatic constraints associated with different forests [ 23 , 24 ]. Consequently, there is much uncertainty in the direction and magnitude of these effects on different forests [ 20 , 25 , 26 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stand carbon storage and net primary production in China’s subtropical secondary forests are predicted to increase by 2060

Jia

Xiang

Zeng

et al. 2022

Carbon Balance Manage

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Background Forest ecosystems play an important role in carbon sequestration, climate change mitigation, and achieving China's target to become carbon (C) neutral by 2060. However, changes in C storage and net primary production (NPP) in natural secondary forests stemming from tree growth and future climate change have not yet been investigated in subtropical areas in China. Here, we used data from 290 inventory plots in four secondary forests [evergreen broad-leaved forest (EBF), deciduous and evergreen broad-leaved mixed forest (DEF), deciduous broad-leaved forest (DBF), and coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest (CDF)] at different restoration stages and run a hybrid model (TRIPLEX 1.6) to predict changes in stand carbon storage and NPP under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results The runs of the hybrid model calibrated and validated by using the data from the inventory plots suggest significant increase in the carbon storage by 2060 under the current climate conditions, and even higher increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. In contrast to the carbon storage, the simulated EBF and DEF NPP declines slightly over the period from 2014 to 2060. Conclusions The obtained results lead to conclusion that proper management of China’s subtropical secondary forests could be considered as one of the steps towards achieving China’s target to become carbon neutral by 2060.

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Estimating the distribution and productivity characters of Larix kaempferi in response to climate change

Cited by 19 publications

References 30 publications

Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

Early Growth Responses of Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr. Seedling to Short-Term Extreme Climate Events in Summer

Stand carbon storage and net primary production in China’s subtropical secondary forests are predicted to increase by 2060

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