Estimating the cure rate and case fatality rate of the ongoing epidemic COVID-19

Abstract

The epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19 in Wuhan at the end of 2019 has become an urgent public event of worldwide concern. However, due to the changing data of the epidemic, there is no scientific estimate of the cure rate and case fatality rate of the epidemic. This study proposes a method to estimate the cure rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19. The ratio of cumulative discharges on a given day to the sum of cumulative discharges on a given day and cumulative deaths before j days is used to estimate the cure rate.Moreover, the case fatality ratio can also be estimated. After simulation calculations, j is statistically appropriate when it is 8-10, and it is also clinically appropriate. When j is 9, based on the available data, it is inferred that the cure rate of this epidemic is about 93% and the case fatality rate is about 7%. This method of estimating the cure rate can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment in different medical schemes and different regions, and has great value and significance for decision-making in the epidemic.

Evaluating the Disaster Risk of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using an Ecological Niche Model

“…For Beijing, (1) disease surveillance, crowd control in supermarkets, and food and customs surveillance efforts need to be strengthened. (2) The sanitation emergency plan needs to be improved and followed up on, and the staffs of various units need to be closely and continuously monitored, especially those who are in close contact with seafood or refrigerated food, to prevent the occurrence of infections. (3) Since natural environmental variables have played a certain role in the model evaluations conducted herein, we should guide residents to consider proper indoor ventilation in autumn and winter and raise residents' awareness of the "early detection, early reporting, early isolation, and early treatment" of illness.…”

“…The new coronavirus disease is highly infectious and has a long incubation period with the potential for no symptoms. To date, abundant literature has indicated that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of reported cases) is between 2-3%, which is slightly higher than that of common influenza and lower than that of SARS [1,2]. As of 23 April 2020, 2,544,792 COVID-19 cases, including 175,694 attributable deaths, have been reported worldwide [3].…”