Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Sadique, Zia; Adams, Elisabeth J; Edmunds, W. John

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-135

Cited by 154 publications

(162 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…There are serious disadvantages to closing schools as a precautionary measure, including inconvenience, knock-on economic impacts caused by parental absenteeism from work, and alternative childcare costs [7,11,15,26]. Furthermore, the usefulness of closing schools to prevent an epidemic from taking off is questionable: if school closure could only be feasibly continued for a short period of time its result -unless a mass vaccination campaign could be carried out during the period of closure -would be to delay an epidemic rather than to prevent it.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous infectious disease outbreaks take place in schools, and it is expected that schools would feature heavily in any new epidemic of influenza and similar illnesses [1,[4][5][6]. Therefore school closure has been considered as a possibility during an outbreak [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. There are a number of reasons why school closure might take place, including staff illness, high levels of pupil absence, parental concern, or as an intervention to attempt to slow the spread of infection.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact

Eames

2013

Epidemiol. Infect.

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SUMMARYThe impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact

Eames

2013

Epidemiol. Infect.

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“…Unplanned school closures, especially those implemented for an extended period of time, can involve unintended social and economic adverse consequences for school administrators, students, and student families 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. These consequences can disproportionately affect vulnerable populations and raise ethical concerns over school closures 8.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Unintended Social and Economic Consequences of an Unplanned School Closure in Rural Illinois

Tsai

Khan

Shi³

et al. 2017

Journal of School Health

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BACKGROUND School closure is one of the primary measures considered during severe influenza pandemics and other emergencies. However, prolonged school closures may cause unintended adverse consequences to schools, students, and their families. A better understanding of these consequences will inform prepandemic planning, and help public health and education authorities in making informed decisions when considering school closures. METHODS We conducted a household survey and interviewed school officials following an 8‐day long closure of a school district in rural Illinois. We described household responses regarding difficulties of school closure, and summarized main themes from school official interviews. RESULTS A total of 208 (27%) household surveys were completed and returned. This school closure caused difficulties to 36 (17%) households; uncertain duration of closure, childcare arrangements, and lost pay were the most often reported difficulties. Having 1 adult in the household losing pay and household income below $25,000 were significantly associated with overall difficulty during this school closure. Concern about student health and safety was the most frequent theme in school administrator interviews. CONCLUSIONS Whereas the majority of responding households did not report difficulties during this school closure, households with 1 adult losing pay during the closure reported incurring additional expenses for childcare.

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“…Prior statistical analyses and models of school closings address several issues, including their effects on attack rates in school children and in the community ( [4], [7]), buying time for a strainspecific vaccine ( [33]), the impact of the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts ( [32]), and household responses and costs ( [25], [41]). Our model is distinguished from these in its focus on the contribution of pre-symptomatic (or early symptomatic) children to disease transmission.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)

Webb

Hsieh

2010

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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Abstract. Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. Here we develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.

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Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Cited by 154 publications

References 16 publications

The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact

The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact

Evaluation of Unintended Social and Economic Consequences of an Unplanned School Closure in Rural Illinois

Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)

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