Estimating the causes of traffic accidents using logistic regression and discriminant analysis

Abstract

Factors that affect traffic accidents have been analysed in various ways. In this study, we use the methods of logistic regression and discriminant analysis to determine the damages due to injury and non-injury accidents in the Eskisehir Province. Data were obtained from the accident reports of the General Directorate of Security in Eskisehir; 2552 traffic accidents between January and December 2009 were investigated regarding whether they resulted in injury. According to the results, the effects of traffic accidents were reflected in the variables. These results provide a wealth of information that may aid future measures toward the prevention of undesired results.

A Comparison of Ordered and Unordered Response Models for Analyzing Road Traffic Injury Severities in the North-Eastern Turkey

“…The probability of possible/evident injury consistently increases by 7% for all fitted models when primaryeducated drivers are involved. These results are in line with recent studies focusing on Turkish samples (Celik and Oktay, 2014;Karacasu et al, 2014).…”

“…Although earlier studies conducted to the Turkish sample perform different discrete choice models including a binary logistic or probit regression (Çelik and Senger, 2014;Karacasu et al, 2014;Kartal et al, 2011;Uçar and Tatlıdil, 2005), an ordered probit model (Uçar and Tatlıdil, 2007), and a multinomial logit model (Celik and Oktay, 2014), most probably no studies have accomplished to compare both ordered and unordered response models simultaneously in Turkey. Indeed, further studies that provide such a comparison are needed and valuable since alternative ordered and unordered disaggregate model experiences are also limited worldwide except for some recent research (Abay, 2013;Qin et al, 2013;Sasidharan and Menendez, 2014).…”

Investigation of Oecd Countries With Multi-Dimensional Scaling Analysis in Terms of Traffic Accident Indicators

“…The motorway is mostly preferred in transportation in Turkey. Traffic accidents occurring on motorways in the world and Turkey are among the most important causes of death [13][14][15][16]. In 2017, a total of 1,202,716 traffic accidents occurred in Turkey.…”

“…As a result of these accidents, 7,427 people were killed and 300,383 people were injured [14]. When compared with OECD countries in terms of the number of deaths, injuries and the number of material damages in traffic accidents in 2017, Turkey, unfortunately, ranks at the top [13][14]. Traffic accident statistics in Turkey belonging to 2008-2017 are given in Table 1.…”

“…Bektaş and Hınıs benefitted from the Logistic Regression method to determine factors having an influence on traffic accidents. Similarly, Karacasu et al [13] tried to estimate the causes of traffic accidents applying Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression analysis to the data in Eskişehir province. Murat and Şekerler [19] tried to establish the reasons causing accidents by using Cluster analysis and modeling traffic accident data.…”