Estimating Temporal Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

Bonaccorso, Brunella; Aronica, Giuseppe Tito

doi:10.1007/s11269-016-1442-3

Cited by 20 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Therefore, understanding the possible future changes in short-duration rainfall might enable quantification of how DDF curves may consequently change and the possible effects on urban hydrology. Evidence of positive trends in observed extreme rainfall has been demonstrated by several studies for daily and sub-daily timescales (Adamowski, Adamowski, & Bougadis, 2010;Alexander et al, 2006;Arnone, Pumo, Viola, Noto, & La Loggia, 2013;Bonaccorso & Aronica, 2016;Brunetti, Buffoni, Maugeri, & Nanni, 2000;Burn, Mansour, Zhang, & Whitfield, 2011;Min, Zhang, Zwiers, & Hegerl, 2011;Villarini et al, 2011;Wang et al, 2014). The Mediterranean area has been demonstrated to be one of the regions most affected by changes in climate, indicated as one of the major "hot-spots" in future climate projections confirmed the uncertainties that characterize model simulation of climate change over complex orography; specifically, the author indicated that the models' performances depend on the variable considered and/or the region investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…Evidence of positive trends in observed extreme rainfall has been demonstrated by several studies for daily and sub‐daily timescales (Adamowski, Adamowski, & Bougadis, ; Alexander et al, ; Arnone, Pumo, Viola, Noto, & La Loggia, ; Bonaccorso & Aronica, ; Brunetti, Buffoni, Maugeri, & Nanni, ; Burn, Mansour, Zhang, & Whitfield, ; Min, Zhang, Zwiers, & Hegerl, ; Villarini et al, ; Wang et al, ). The Mediterranean area has been demonstrated to be one of the regions most affected by changes in climate, indicated as one of the major “hot‐spots” in future climate projections (Giorgi, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…The Mediterranean area has been demonstrated to be one of the regions most affected by changes in climate, indicated as one of the major “hot‐spots” in future climate projections (Giorgi, ). Works on historical observations have demonstrated that in some areas, sub‐daily extreme rainfall is intensifying more rapidly than daily extreme precipitation (e.g., Arnone et al, ; Berg, Moseley, & Haerter, ; Bonaccorso & Aronica, ; Burn et al, ; Lenderink & Van Meijgaard, ), with possible consequences for the increased occurrence of flash floods caused by short‐duration rainfall (Forestieri, Caracciolo, Arnone, & Noto, ; Pumo, Caracciolo, Viola, & Noto, ), though this pattern is not observed in all locations (Barbero, Fowler, Lenderink, & Blenkinsop, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, we focus our analysis on the Mediterranean island of Sicily (Italy), where the evidence of statistically significant trends of extreme rainfall at daily and sub-daily have been demonstrated in the past by Aronica, Cannarozzo, and Noto (2002), Arnone et al (2013), and more recently by Bonaccorso and Aronica (2016). The research has been focused on two specific urban areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

Forestieri

Arnone

Blenkinsop

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

Forestieri

Arnone

Blenkinsop

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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“…growth curve) and η i (t) is a site specific scale factor, Figure 2. Location of the investigated river basins and homogeneous regions derived from the regional rainfall frequency analysis carried out by Bonaccorso and Aronica (2016).…”

Section: Rainfall Generator Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

Combining regional rainfall frequency analysis and rainfall-runoff modelling to derive frequency distributions of peak flows in ungauged basins: a proposal for Sicily region (Italy)

2017

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Abstract. In the present study an attempt is made to provide a general Monte Carlo approach for deriving flood frequency curves in ungauged basins in Sicily region (Italy). The proposed procedure consists of (i) a regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall series, combined with Huff curves-based synthetic hyetographs, for design storms and (ii) a rainfall-runoff model, based on the Time-Area technique, to generate synthetic hydrographs. Validation of the procedure is carried out on four gauged river basins in Sicily region (Italy), where synthetic peak flow frequency curves, obtained by simulating 1000 flood events, are compared with observed values. Results of the application reveal that the proposed Monte Carlo approach is suitable to reproduce with reasonable accuracy the hydrologic response of the investigated basins. Given its relative simplicity, the developed procedure can be easily extended to poorly gauged or ungauged basins.

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