Estimating surface melt and runoff on the Antarctic Peninsula using ERA-Interim reanalysis data

Costi, Juliana; Arigony-Neto, Jorge; Braun, Matthias; Mavlyudov, Bulat; Barrand, Nicholas E.; Silva, Aline Barbosa Da; Marques, Wiliam Correa; Simões, Jefferson Cárdia

doi:10.1017/s0954102018000391

Cited by 25 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Several studies have been conducted with PDD models to explore surface melt in Antarctica, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula (e.g. Golledge et al, 2010;Barrand et al, 2013;Costi et al, 2018). The PDD model calculates surface melt based on the temperature-melt relationship (Hock, 2005).…”

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confidence: 99%

Estimating surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022, using a statistically parameterized positive degree-day model

Zheng

Golledge²,

Gossart³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Surface melt is one of the primary drivers of ice shelf collapse in Antarctica. Surface melting is expected to increase in the future as the global climate continues to warm, because there is a statistically significant positive relationship between air temperature and melt. Enhanced surface melt will negatively impact the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and, through dynamic feedbacks, induce changes in global mean sea level (GMSL). However, current understanding of surface melt in Antarctica remains limited in past, present or future contexts. Continental-scale spaceborne observations of surface melt are limited to the satellite era (1979–present), meaning that current estimates of Antarctic surface melt are typically derived from surface energy balance (SEB) or positive degree-day (PDD) models. SEB models require diverse and detailed input data that are not always available and require considerable computational resources. The PDD model, by comparison, has fewer input and computational requirements and is therefor suited for exploring surface melt scenarios in the past and future. The use of PDD schemes for Antarctic melt has been less extensively explored than their application to surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, particularly in terms of a spatially-varying parameterization. Here, we construct a PDD model, force it only with 2-m air temperature reanalysis data, and parameterize it by minimizing the error with respect to satellite observations and SEB model outputs over the period 1979 to 2022. We compare the spatial and temporal variability of surface melt from our PDD model over the last 43 years with that of satellite observations and SEB simulations. We find that the PDD model can generally capture the same spatial and temporal surface melt patterns. Although there were at most four years over/under- estimation on ice shelf regions in the epoch, these discrepancies reduce when considering the whole AIS. With the limitations discussed, we suggest that an appropriately parameterized PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.

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confidence: 99%

Estimating surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022, using a statistically parameterized positive degree-day model

Zheng

Golledge²,

Gossart³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…4e and 4f). High runoff values, produced by melting and rainfall when the rn is already saturated with liquid water, are detrimental for ice-shelf stability 31 . Indeed, these high melt and runoff rates lead to melt pond formation as demonstrated by the signi cant correlation between melt pond observations from MODIS and summer AR occurrences 32 (Supplementary Fig.…”

Section: Ice Shelf Calving and Collapse Cooccurrences With Arsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The average two-day sea-ice change during intense AR days in this region (2.5% reduction) is statistically signi cantly higher than non-AR days (0.1 % increase; p-value < 0.0025). West of the AP, the average sea-ice decline in response to ARs is smaller, yet still notable around the Wilkins ice shelf and along the sea-ice front in the Bellingshausen Sea like during 2002 and 2005 when AR activity was elevated 29,31 (Fig. 1, Fig.…”

Section: Ice Shelf Calving and Collapse Cooccurrences With Arsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Atmospheric River Threat to Antarctic Peninsula Ice-Shelf Stability

Wille¹,

Favier²,

Jourdain³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The disintegration of the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have spurred much discussion on the various processes leading to their eventual dramatic collapse, but without a consensus on an atmospheric forcing that could connect these processes. Here, using an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm along with a regional climate model and satellite observations, we show that particularly intense ARs have a ~40% probability of inducing extreme events of temperature, surface melt, sea-ice disintegration, or large swells; all processes proven to induce ice-shelf destabilization. This was observed during the collapses of the Larsen A, B, and overall, 60% of calving events triggered by ARs from 2000-2020. The loss of the buttressing effect from these ice shelves leads to further continental ice loss and subsequent sea-level rise. Understanding how ARs connect various disparate processes cited in ice-shelf collapse theories is essential for identifying other at-risk ice shelves like the Larsen C.

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“…The AR climatology for the AP generated by the AR detection algorithm reveals that summer AR activity was highly variable during the last 40 years. It was particularly high during the late 1990s/early 2000s which was a period marked with when the rn is already saturated with liquid water, are detrimental for ice-shelf stability (Costi et al [2018]; Vaughan [2006]). Runo rates show similar relationships to AR activity as melt rates, the only di erence being that runo is predominately constrained to the lower-elevation ice shelves (Fig.…”

Section: Ice-shelf Preconditioning Relationshipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Antarctic Atmospheric River Climatology and Impacts

Wille

2020

Preprint

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Atmospheric rivers, broadly defined as narrow yet long bands of strong horizontal vapor transport typically imbedded in a low level jet ahead of a cold front of an extratropical cyclone, provide a sub-tropical connection to the Antarctic continent and are observed to significantly impact the affected region&#8217;s surface mass balance over short, extreme events. When an atmospheric river makes landfall on the Antarctic continent, their signature is clearly observed in increased downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water content, surface temperature, snowfall, surface melt, and moisture transport.Using an atmospheric river detection algorithm designed for Antarctica and regional climate simulations from MAR, we created a climatology of atmospheric river occurrence and their associated impacts on surface melt and snowfall. Despite their rarity of occurrence over Antarctica (maximum frequency of ~1.5% over a given point), they have produced significant impacts on melting and snowfall processes. From 1979-2017, atmospheric rivers landfalls and their associated radiative flux anomalies and foehn winds accounted for around 40% of the total summer surface melt on the Ross Ice Shelf (approaching 100% at higher elevations in Marie Byrd Land) and 40-80% of total winter surface melt on the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula. On the other side of the continent in East Antarctica, atmospheric rivers have a greater influence on annual snowfall variability. There atmospheric rivers are responsible for 20-40% of annual snowfall with localized higher percentages across Dronning Maud Land, Amery Ice Shelf, and Wilkes Land.Atmospheric river landfalls occur within a highly amplified polar jet pattern and often are found in the entrance region of a blocking ridge. Therefore, atmospheric river variability is connected with atmospheric blocking variability over the Southern Ocean. There has been a significant increase in atmospheric river activity over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen sea and coastline and into Dronning Maud Land region from 1980-2018. Meanwhile, there is a significant decreasing trend in the region surrounding Law Dome. Our results suggest that atmospheric rivers play a significant role in the Antarctic surface mass balance, and that any future changes in atmospheric blocking or tropical-polar teleconnections may have significant impacts on future surface mass balance projections.

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Estimating surface melt and runoff on the Antarctic Peninsula using ERA-Interim reanalysis data

Cited by 25 publications

References 55 publications

Estimating surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022, using a statistically parameterized positive degree-day model

Estimating surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022, using a statistically parameterized positive degree-day model

The Atmospheric River Threat to Antarctic Peninsula Ice-Shelf Stability

Antarctic Atmospheric River Climatology and Impacts

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