Estimating stratospheric polar vortex strength using ambient ocean‐generated infrasound and stochastics‐based machine learning

Abstract

There are sparse opportunities for direct measurement of upper stratospheric winds, yet improving their representation in subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction models can have significant benefits. There is solid evidence from previous research that global atmospheric infrasound waves are sensitive to stratospheric dynamics. However, there is a lack of results providing a direct mapping between infrasound recordings and polar‐cap upper stratospheric winds. The global International Monitoring System (IMS), which monitors compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test‐Ban Treaty, includes ground‐based stations that can be used to characterize the infrasound soundscape continuously. In this study, multi‐station IMS infrasound data were utilized along with a machine‐learning supported stochastic model, Delay‐SDE‐net, to demonstrate how a near‐real‐time estimate of the polar‐cap averaged zonal wind at 1‐hPa pressure level can be found from infrasound data. The infrasound was filtered to a temporal low‐frequency regime dominated by microbaroms, which are ambient‐noise infrasonic waves continuously radiated into the atmosphere from nonlinear interaction between counter‐propagating ocean surface waves. Delay‐SDE‐net was trained on 5 years (2014–2018) of infrasound data from three stations and the ERA5 reanalysis 1‐hPa polar‐cap averaged zonal wind. Using infrasound in 2019–2020 for validation, we demonstrate a prediction of the polar‐cap averaged zonal wind, with an error standard deviation of around 12 m·s compared with ERA5. These findings highlight the potential of using infrasound data for near‐real‐time measurements of upper stratospheric dynamics. A long‐term goal is to improve high‐top atmospheric model accuracy, which can have significant implications for weather and climate prediction.