Estimating return periods for daily precipitation extreme events over the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

This paper aims to model the occurrence of daily precipitation extreme events and to estimate the return period of these events through the extreme value theory (generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)). The GEV and GPD were applied in precipitation series of homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot and by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. The Q-Q plot suggests that the probability distributions of the studied series are appropriated, and these results were confirmed by the KS test, which demonstrates that the tested distributions have a good fit in all sub-regions of Amazon, thus adequate to study the daily precipitation extreme event. For all return levels studied, more intense precipitation extremes is expected to occur within the South sub-regions and the coastal area of the Brazilian Amazon. The results possibly will have some practical application in local extreme weather forecast.

Estimating Trends and Return Periods of Daily Extreme Precipitation Associated with Tropical Cyclones in the Core North American Monsoon

“…Fig. 4 shows return periods for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years and the intensity of precipitation associated and not associated with TCs [47]. As a forecast and according to the results, the highest intensities of AADEP are recorded in the return periods 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, so the intensities of precipitation associated with TCs will be greater than those not associated with TCs (Fig.…”

“…This behavior was associated with the positive trend of continued growth of the intensity of the contribution of P95 in mountain stations and to simultaneous +PDO and -AMO anomalies mainly in the 1990's [34][35]. According to [47], knowing the return periods of extreme daily precipitation in a region can contribute to the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies to help assure food sustainability and decrease human casualties.…”

Caracterização De Extremos Mensais De Precipitação Em Cacoal (Ro)

“…Compreender eventos extremos de precipitação em uma região é muito importante, pois os mesmos têm grande potencial para causar danos materiais e perdas de vidas humanas (BLAIN e CAMARGO, 2012). Eventos de precipitação extrema causam um grande impacto sobre as atividades socioeconômicas da Amazônia, tornando a população vulnerável ao comportamento e à variabilidade do sistema climático (SANTOS et al, 2016).…”

“…Em 2014, Acre e Rondônia declararam um estado de calamidade devido a inundações causadas por fortes chuvas nas nascentes dos rios (SANTOS et al, 2016). Cotta et al (2016) destacam a importância de estudar extremos de precipitação objetivando informações como diagnóstico de impacto, frequência e previsões para minimizar os impactos na população local.…”

“…Analisar a probabilidade da ocorrência de eventos de precipitação é importante para o planejamento de atividades expostas aos seus efeitos adversos (SANTOS et al, 2016), como planejamento de atividades relacionadas à agricultura ou no monitoramento de processos hidrológicos concernentes às bacias hidrográficas (KIST e VIRGENS FILHO, 2015).…”