Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

Twedt, Daniel J.

doi:10.1111/jofo.12118

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(50 reference statements)

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“…Combining data on detection distance and time increases the flexibility and utility of models designed to estimate abundance (Amundson et al 2014). Collecting data on detection distance and time is straightforward for point-counts and should be more broadly encouraged by the ecological research community (Twedt 2015).…”

Section: Model Fit and Flexibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Monitoring species in National Parks facilitates inference regarding effects of climate change on population dynamics because parks are relatively unaffected by other forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Even at early points in a monitoring program, identifying climate covariates of population density can suggest vulnerabilities to future change. Monitoring landbird populations in parks during the breeding season brings the added benefit of allowing a comparative approach to inference across a large suite of species with diverse requirements. For example, comparing resident and migratory species that vary in exposure to non-park habitats can reveal the relative importance of park effects, such as those related to local climate. We monitored landbirds using breeding-season point-count data collected during 2005-2014 in three wilderness areas of the Pacific Northwest (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks). For 39 species, we estimated recent trends in population density while accounting for individual detection probability using Bayesian hierarchical N-mixture models. Our analyses integrated several recent developments in N-mixture modeling, incorporating interval and distance sampling to estimate distinct components of detection probability while also accommodating count intervals of varying duration, annual variation in the length and number of point-count transects, spatial autocorrelation, random effects, and covariates of detection and density. As covariates of density, we considered metrics of precipitation and temperature hypothesized to affect breeding success. We also considered effects of park and elevational stratum on trend. Regardless of model structure, we estimated stable or increasing densities during 2005-2014 for most populations. Mean trends across species were positive for migrants in every park and for residents in one park. A recent snowfall deficit in this region might have contributed to the positive trend, because population density varied inversely with precipitation-as-snow for both migrants and residents. Densities varied directly but much more weakly with mean spring temperature. Our approach exemplifies an analytical framework for estimating trends from point-count data, and for assessing the role of climatic and other spatiotemporal variables in driving those trends. Understanding population trends and the factors that drive them is critical for adaptive management and resource stewardship in the context of climate change.

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Section: Model Fit and Flexibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

et al. 2017

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“…However, the estimate for Eastern Whip-poor-will is lower than what I found previously in a study of occupancy probability among clearcuts, open wetlands and burned stands where the mean across the three habitats was 0.413 (Farrell et al 2017). My estimate in this study is also lower than other studies in more southern landscapes in eastern Ontario (0.760 Tozer et al 2014) and in the southern U.S.A. (0.748, Twedt 2015).…”

Section: Species Occupancy Levelscontrasting

confidence: 83%

Local-Scale Association of Boreal Birds with Clearcuts Does Not Translate to the Landscape Scale

Farrell¹

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Many boreal forest birds, including the Common Nighthawk and Eastern Whip-poor-will, have shown recent steep population declines. Both species are known to use clearcuts as habitat locally; however this relationship has not been tested at a landscape-scale. In this study I addressed the question: Are landscapes with more clearcut associated with higher occupancy of Common Nighthawk and Eastern Whip-poor-will? I selected 49 recent clearcuts (≤ 15 years old) of similar size and placed acoustic recorders on their edges. I measured the proportion of recent clearcut within multiple spatial extents around each bird sample site. I also measured the proportion of open wetland in the landscapes as a covariate. Occurrence of neither species was significantly affected by the proportion of clearcut in the surrounding landscape, at any of the tested spatial extents. However, Common Nighthawk occupancy was lower in landscapes with higher proportions of older (11-15years old) clearcuts, and for both species occupancy was higher in landscapes with higher proportions of open wetland, significantly so for Eastern Whippoor-will. I propose that these species nest on clearcut edges because they seem to be similar to other open habitat like wetland edges. However, clearcuts may not offer the same level of insect prey supply as offered in the open wetlands and therefore do not act as similar foraging habitat. Thus, clearcut edges may act as ecological traps, attracting birds to nest in areas of lower habitat quality. I demonstrated that local-scale habitat associations do not necessarily scale up to a landscape-scale. My results suggest that the conservation of open wetlands will be important for persistence of these boreal bird species. iv

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“…For our analysis, we included wind speed scores recorded at the start of each BBS count using the Beaufort wind scale (Sauer et al 2015). Between 2009 and 2015, a small number of BBS routes (n = 106) were surveyed using a modified p rotocol (RPID = 501) that incorporated time and distance information (Twedt 2015). Compared to the standard BBS protocol (RPID = 101), this time-distance protocol resulted in on average 10% fewer observations per survey (Sauer et al in prep ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating spatially and temporally complex range dynamics when detection is imperfect

Rushing

Royle

Ziolkowski

et al. 2019

Preprint

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7Species distributions are determined by the interaction of multiple biotic and 8 abiotic factors, which produces complex spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence. 9 As habitats and climate change due to anthropogenic activities, there is a need to 10 develop species distribution models that can quantify these complex range dynamics. 11In this paper, we develop a dynamic occupancy model that uses a spatial generalized 12 additive model to estimate non-linear spatial variation in occupancy not accounted 13 for by environmental covariates. The model is flexible and can accommodate data 14 from a range of sampling designs that provide information about both occupancy and 15 detection probability. Output from the model can be used to create distribution maps 16 and to estimate indices of temporal range dynamics. We demonstrate the utility of 17 this approach by modeling long-term range dynamics of 10 eastern North American 18 birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We anticipate this 19 framework will be particularly useful for modeling species' distributions over large 20 spatial scales and for quantifying range dynamics over long temporal scales. 21 Introduction 24 The distribution of each species is determined by the interaction of multiple biotic and abiotic 25 factors that vary across both space and time, including weather and climate (Barbet-Massin 26 and Jetz 2014), habitat availability (Hill et al. 1999), physiological tolerances (Kearney and 27 Porter 2009), and biotic interactions (Araújo and Luoto 2007). As a result, most species' 28 distributions are characterized by complex spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence, which 29 combined with the large scales over which distributions change, present challenges for both 30the collection and analysis of data to quantify range dynamics (Elith et al. 2010). As habitats 31 and climate change due to anthropogenic activities, there is an increasingly urgent need 32 to develop species distribution models (SDMs) that can accurately and efficiently quantify 33 complex range dynamics over large spatial and long temporal scales. 34 In response to this need, researchers have developed a range of SDM approaches that vary 35 in their data requirements and analytical methods (Elith et al. 2010, Guillera-Arroita 36 2017). Although each of these methods has strengths and weaknesses, SDMs designed to 37 quantify range dynamics require several key features. First, SDMs must include sufficient 38 flexibility to quantify highly non-linear spatial patterns in occurrence probability. Although 39 spatial variation in occurrence can in some cases be modeled using environmental covariates, 40 residual spatial variation (which is likely common in most applications of SDMs at large 41 spatial scales) can bias estimates of occurrence probability (Johnson et al. 2013, Guélat 42 and Kéry 2018). Second, because occurrence probability at a given point in time is not 43 independent of occurrence probability at earlier points in time, SDMs must e...

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Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

Cited by 18 publications

References 24 publications

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

Local-Scale Association of Boreal Birds with Clearcuts Does Not Translate to the Landscape Scale

Estimating spatially and temporally complex range dynamics when detection is imperfect

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