Estimating regional climate change uncertainty in Japan at the end of the 21st century with mixture distribution

Wakamatsu, Shunya; Oshio, Kenji; Ishihara, Koji; Murai, Hirokazu; Nakashima, Toshio; Inoue, Tsuyoshi

doi:10.3178/hrl.11.65

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The Finite Element/volumE Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) is the ocean-sea-ice component of the coupled Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM; . It works on unstructured triangular meshes for both the ocean and sea-ice modules Wang et al, 2008;Timmermann et al, 2009). FESOM version 1.4 (Wang et al, 2014;Danilov et al, 2015) is employed in this study and all the CMIP6 simulations as well.…”

Section: A1 Awi-fesommentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

et al. 2020

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Abstract. We present a new framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP-2), making use of the surface dataset based on the Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis for driving ocean–sea-ice models (JRA55-do). We motivate the use of OMIP-2 over the framework for the first phase of OMIP (OMIP-1), previously referred to as the Coordinated Ocean–ice Reference Experiments (COREs), via the evaluation of OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations from 11 state-of-the-science global ocean–sea-ice models. In the present evaluation, multi-model ensemble means and spreads are calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations and overall performance is assessed considering metrics commonly used by ocean modelers. Both OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 multi-model ensemble ranges capture observations in more than 80 % of the time and region for most metrics, with the multi-model ensemble spread greatly exceeding the difference between the means of the two datasets. Many features, including some climatologically relevant ocean circulation indices, are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet we could also identify key qualitative improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2. For example, the sea surface temperatures of the OMIP-2 simulations reproduce the observed global warming during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the warming slowdown in the 2000s and the more recent accelerated warming, which were absent in OMIP-1, noting that the last feature is part of the design of OMIP-2 because OMIP-1 forcing stopped in 2009. A negative bias in the sea-ice concentration in summer of both hemispheres in OMIP-1 is significantly reduced in OMIP-2. The overall reproducibility of both seasonal and interannual variations in sea surface temperature and sea surface height (dynamic sea level) is improved in OMIP-2. These improvements represent a new capability of the OMIP-2 framework for evaluating process-level responses using simulation results. Regarding the sensitivity of individual models to the change in forcing, the models show well-ordered responses for the metrics that are directly forced, while they show less organized responses for those that require complex model adjustments. Many of the remaining common model biases may be attributed either to errors in representing important processes in ocean–sea-ice models, some of which are expected to be reduced by using finer horizontal and/or vertical resolutions, or to shared biases and limitations in the atmospheric forcing. In particular, further efforts are warranted to resolve remaining issues in OMIP-2 such as the warm bias in the upper layer, the mismatch between the observed and simulated variability of heat content and thermosteric sea level before 1990s, and the erroneous representation of deep and bottom water formations and circulations. We suggest that such problems can be resolved through collaboration between those developing models (including parameterizations) and forcing datasets. Overall, the present assessment justifies our recommendation that future model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.

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Section: A1 Awi-fesommentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

et al. 2020

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“…The IPCC's RCP8.5 climate change scenario assumes a CO 2 partial pressure increase to 905 × 10 -6 Pa Pa -1 by 2100. Temperature in Japan was assumed to rise by 3.8 ± 0.9 K in spring (March-May), by 4.1 ± 0.6 K in summer (June-August), by 4.5 ± 0.8 K in autumn (September-November), and by 4.8 ± 1.0 K in winter (December-February) on the Pacific side of eastern Japan, where the Kawaraya field is located (Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 2017; Wakamatsu et al 2017).…”

Section: Forecasted Rice Yield and Soil N Kinetic Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…RCP8.5 is a high radiative forcing pathway. In the models assessed here, by 2100 the multiple-model average greenhouse gas concentration is 985 ± 97 ppm (CO 2 equivalent) and the range of global surface temperature change (2081-2100 average relative to 1986-2005 average) is 2.6-4.7 K. In Japan, the mean temperature is predicted to change by 4.5 K and will be greater at the higher latitudes, and the frequency of anomalous warm periods will increase by 2100 (JMA 2017;Murata et al 2015;Sasaki et al 2012;Wakamatsu et al 2017). Both the quantity and quality of many agricultural products are expected to decline, and production areas will shift.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on soil nitrogen kinetics and rice production in Andisol paddy fields

Kamewada

Yoshizawa

2018

Soil Science and Plant Nutrition

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We constructed a new rice growth model, SIMRIW k , and discuss the impact of climate change on the growth and production of rice plants in relation to soil nitrogen (N) kinetics. We developed a model simulating N availability for rice plants associated with soil N kinetics and rice plant N uptake and combined it with the existing rice growth model SIMRIW to construct SIMRIW k. The model parameters were determined from rice plant growth and soil N experimental data obtained over 25 years under four soil management regimes. SIMRIW k successfully simulated the annual changes and upward trend observed during the 25 years in all treatments. The relationship between measured yields and SIMRIW k calculations in all treatments over the 25 years formed one aggregation defined by the regression equation y = 1.00x and showed a significant correlation (r 2 = 0.894). According to SIMRIW k , increasing temperature in the cold season increases the formation of easily decomposable organic N produced under dry conditions and N mineralization during the next warm season, suggesting that rice growth is influenced by both warm-season and cold-season temperatures. We forecast rice yield and soil N kinetics from 2016 to 2100 using SIMRIW k and climate change predictions based on the IPCC's climate change scenario RCP8.5. Atmospheric warming, a rise in CO 2 partial pressure, and increased soil N mineralization caused by soil warming will increase rice plant growth, but the decreased radiation absorbed owing to the shortened growing season and high-temperature sterility will prevent any significant change in yield. Furthermore, the acceleration of soil organic N decomposition will decrease soil organic N concentrations. Understanding the influences of climate change on soil organic matter kinetics is absolutely critical for predicting the future soil production capacity.

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“…It was reported that the annual mean surface air temperature over Japan has increased at a rate of 1.19 • C/100 years, faster than the global average [31]. Annual mean air temperatures in Japan were projected to rise by 1.1 ± 0.4 • C and 4.4 ± 0.6 • C under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios at the end of the 21st century, relative to the end of the 20th century [32]. Although the warming impacts on the fishery species around Japan were mentioned in the report from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries [33], little information exists on the snow crab.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influences of Global Warming on the Larval Survival and Transport of Snow Crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in the Sea of Japan

et al. 2019

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The snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) sustains an important bottom trawling fishery in the Sea of Japan. Its response to global warming is attracting the attention of the public. Using a transport and survival model for crab larvae in the Sea of Japan, we examined the spatial-temporal variations of crab spawning and larval settlement in the past (mid-20th century), present (early 21st century), and future (mid- and late 21st century) under the low and high radiative forcing scenarios. It was found that the variations in spawning differed between the regions south of and north of 41.5° N, on both seasonal and long-term scales. Larval settlement in the Sea of Japan was projected to increase in the future, which is mainly attributed to a reduction in mortality due to the low water temperature. Moreover, the aggregating location of the settled megalopae will likely shift northward, with increasing settlement off Hokkaido Island. With additional sensitivity experiments, we confirmed that the change in water temperature has a stronger impact on larval settlement than that in the current field. The change in water temperature controlled both the amount and distribution of crab larval settlement, while a change in current field only affected the distribution to some extent.

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Estimating regional climate change uncertainty in Japan at the end of the 21st century with mixture distribution

Cited by 5 publications

References 24 publications

Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

Impacts of climate change on soil nitrogen kinetics and rice production in Andisol paddy fields

Influences of Global Warming on the Larval Survival and Transport of Snow Crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in the Sea of Japan

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