Estimating recoverable oil reserves using integral displacement characteristics based on probabilistic methodology

Abstract

Estimation of recoverable oil reserves is an actual problem in field development. One way to estimate reserves is to use the characteristics of oil displacement by water. This method, in contrast to hydrodynamic modeling, doesn't take a long computational time and doesn't require information on the geological and filtration properties of the objects under consideration.The article discusses the use of integral displacement characteristics based on a probabilistic method for assessing potentially recoverable oil reserves. We describe an algorithm for estimating reserves by this method. In the course of the comparative analysis, the efficiency of the method was demonstrated depending on the watercut at the end of the approximation interval. As a result, with a watercut of less than 90 %, a better forecast was found than in the classical application of the characteristics of oil displacement by water.