Estimating real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Israel using aggregated counts

Aran, Dvir

doi:10.1101/2021.02.05.21251139

Cited by 48 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Furthermore, at the time of the vaccination, additional checks were made to ensure that they had not recently had suggested or confirmed COVID-19 and the behavioural advice was reinforced both verbally and with an additional leaflet. Possible explanations for these early effects therefore include: (1) a time-limited healthy vaccinated bias arising from the instruction that those who recently had COVID-19, tested positive, or were self-isolating were asked to defer vaccination; 19 (2) reinforcement of the importance of following behavioural advice before and during vaccination; 19,20 (3) early responses in those who were not SARS-CoV-2 naive (>10% of the Scottish population); 21,22 and (4) a time-independent healthy vaccinated bias in which vaccines might not have been offered to or were declined by the most frail. 23 We attempted to adjust for the time-independent healthy vaccinated effect using a functional variable, namely dementia.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We produced a protocol before undertaking the analysis. We followed the Reporting of studies Conducted using Observational Routinelycollected Data 9 checklist to guide transparent reporting of this cohort study (appendix pp [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. Our analysis code has been made publicly available.…”

Section: Study Design and Participantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…AS and JMcM are members of the Scottish Government chief medical officer's COVID- 19 England. SdL has received funding through the University of Oxford for studies from AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, GSK, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Seqirus, and Takeda; and has been a member of advisory boards for influenza for Seqirus and Sanofi.…”

Section: Declaration Of Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study

et al. 2021

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Background The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer–BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy against disease in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. Studying the real-world effects of these vaccines is an urgent requirement. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between the mass roll-out of the first doses of these COVID-19 vaccines and hospital admissions for COVID-19. Methods We did a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19—EAVE II—database comprising linked vaccination, primary care, real-time reverse transcription-PCR testing, and hospital admission patient records for 5·4 million people in Scotland (about 99% of the population) registered at 940 general practices. Individuals who had previously tested positive were excluded from the analysis. A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models with inverse propensity weights were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 hospital admission (defined as 1–adjusted rate ratio) following the first dose of vaccine. Findings Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 22, 2021, a total of 1 331 993 people were vaccinated over the study period. The mean age of those vaccinated was 65·0 years (SD 16·2). The first dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 91% (95% CI 85–94) for reduced COVID-19 hospital admission at 28–34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 88% (95% CI 75–94). Results of combined vaccine effects against hospital admission due to COVID-19 were similar when restricting the analysis to those aged 80 years and older (83%, 95% CI 72–89 at 28–34 days post-vaccination). Interpretation Mass roll-out of the first doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines was associated with substantial reductions in the risk of hospital admission due to COVID-19 in Scotland. There remains the possibility that some of the observed effects might have been due to residual confounding. Funding UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Design and Participantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Declaration Of Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study

et al. 2021

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“…Of the 26 included peer-reviewed articles, ten were from Israel [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] and eight from the USA [40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. Six articles looked at adverse event data [42][43][44][45]49] and five looked at vaccine acceptance [46,47,[50][51][52].…”

Section: Peer-reviewed Research Of Vaccination Outcomesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Implementation of Mass-Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review of Existing Strategies and Guidelines

et al. 2021

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The global drive to vaccinate against severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) began in December 2020 with countries in Europe, Middle East, and North America leading the roll out of a mass-vaccination program. This systematic review synthesised all available English-language guidelines and research regarding mass-vaccination for COVID-19 until 1 March 2021—the first three months of the global mass-vaccination effort. Data were extracted from national websites, PubMed, Embase, Medline and medRxiv, including peer and non-peer review research findings. A total of 15 national policy documents were included. Policies were summarised according to the World Health Organisation (WHO) framework for mass vaccination. All included policies prioritised front-line health care workers and the elderly. Limited information was available regarding staffing, cold chain, communication strategies and infrastructure requirements for effective vaccine delivery. A total of 26 research studies were identified, reporting roll-out strategies, vaccine uptake and reasons for refusal, adverse effects, and real-life estimates of efficacy. Early data showed a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalisation and deaths in settings with good coverage. Very low rates of vaccine-related serious adverse events were observed. These findings provide an overview of current practice and early outcomes of COVID-19 mass-vaccination, guiding countries where roll-out is yet to commence.

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“…The first reported an efficacy of 51% for the first dose after 13-24 days 11 while the second reported an efficacy of 46% and 92% following 14-20 days from the first dose and 7 or more days from the second doses of the vaccine respectively 12 . Another report estimated that the vaccine effectiveness is above 95% 3-4 weeks after the second dose 13 . However, to our knowledge, very few studies 14 thus far have analysed the impact of the vaccination campaign on the patterns of pandemic dynamics at the population level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of a broad national immunization program

Rossman

Shilo

Meir

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Studies on the real-life impact of the BNT162b2 vaccine, recently authorized for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), are urgently needed. Here, we analysed the temporal dynamics of the number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalization in Israel following a vaccination campaign initiated on December 20th, 2020. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data originating from the Israeli Ministry of Health (MOH) from March 2020 to February 2021. In order to distill the possible effect of the vaccinations from other factors, including a third lockdown imposed in Israel on January 2021, we compared the time-dependent changes in number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations between (1) individuals aged 60 years and older, eligible to receive the vaccine earlier and younger individuals (0-59 years old); (2) early-vaccinated cities compared to late-vaccinated cities; (3) early-vaccinated geographical statistical areas (GSAs) compared to late-vaccinated GSAs; and (4) the current lockdown versus the previous lockdown, imposed on September 2020. By February 6th 2021, 45.3% and 29.7% of the entire Israeli population (89.9% and 80% of individuals older than 60 years old) received the first dose or both doses of the vaccine, respectively, or recovered from COVID-19. In mid-January, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalization started to decline, with a larger and earlier decrease among older individuals. This trend was more evident in early-vaccinated compared to late-vaccinated cities. Such a pattern was not observed in the previous lockdown. Our analysis demonstrates evidence for the real-life effectiveness of a national vaccination campaign in Israel on the pandemic dynamics. This report reflects a snapshot of a fast-changing situation. However, we believe our findings have major public health implications in the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic, including the publics perception of the need for and benefit of nationwide vaccination campaigns. More studies aimed at assessing the effectiveness of vaccination both on the individual and on the population level, with larger followup are needed.

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Estimating real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Israel using aggregated counts

Cited by 48 publications

References 6 publications

Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study

Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study

The Implementation of Mass-Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review of Existing Strategies and Guidelines

Patterns of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of a broad national immunization program

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