Estimating Probability of Failure of a Complex System Based on Inexact Information about Subsystems and Components, with Potential Applications to Aircraft Maintenance

Abstract

Abstract. In many real-life applications (e.g., in aircraft maintenance), we need to estimate the probability of failure of a complex system (such as an aircraft as a whole or one of its subsystems). Complex systems are usually built with redundancy allowing them to withstand the failure of a small number of components. In this paper, we assume that we know the structure of the system, and, as a result, for each possible set of failed components, we can tell whether this set will lead to a system failure. For each component A, we know the probability P (A) of its failure with some uncertainty: e.g., we know the lower and upper bounds P (A) and P (A) for this probability. Usually, it is assumed that failures of different components are independent events. Our objective is to use all this information to estimate the probability of failure of the entire the complex system. In this paper, we describe a new efficient method for such estimation based on Cauchy deviates.

Fuzzy (and Interval) Techniques in the Age of Big Data: An Overview with Applications to Environmental Science, Geosciences, Engineering, and Medicine

“…A safer method is to use fuzzy and interval techniques. The resulting estimates have indeed been successfully applied in aircraft maintenance 12,13,20 and in civil engineering 4 .…”