Estimating potential range shift of some wild bees in response to climate change scenarios in northwestern regions of Iran

Abstract

Background Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.

Global Trends in Climate Suitability of Bees: Ups and Downs in a Warming World

“…The number of occurrence data points necessary for creating a species distribution model (SDM) is influenced by several factors, including model complexity, data quality, species traits, research objectives, and scale [13,24]. While there is no fixed rule, some general guidelines apply.…”

“…Conservationists can use these models to prioritize areas for conservation efforts, such as establishing protected areas or implementing habitat restoration projects. With climate change affecting ecosystems and species distributions, SDMs can be used to assess how climate-driven shifts may impact species' ranges [13]. To estimate the potential effects of climate change on pollinators, we used species distribution models (SDMs).…”

“…Many of these studies have examined limited insect species and geographic regions. In general, rising temperatures are likely to compel bee species to migrate towards higher latitudes and polar areas [12,13]. For instance, Rasmont, Franzén [14] predicted a decline in bumblebee diversity in Europe by 2050 due to climate change, suggesting that only specific regions, including mountainous areas, might maintain a significant portion of their existing diversity by 2100.…”

Climate Change Influence on the Potential Distribution of Some Cavity-Nesting Bees (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae)

“…Recently, several studies used ecological niche modeling techniques for different insect pollinator species to understand speciation patterns in bees [14] and predict conservation areas for making conservation management decisions [15][16][17][18]. Niche modelling techniques have been also used to predict the potential distribution of bee species in current and future periods [19], and to address the potential effects of climate change on the distributions of species [20][21][22]. To the best of our knowledge, no study has been conducted to model the effects of climate change on wild bees in Egypt.…”

Rapid Urbanization and the Growing Water Risk Challenges in Ethiopia: The Need for Water Sensitive Thinking

“…Domestic material consumption will reach 8-17 tones per capita per year, which exceeds the standard set by the sustainable development goal (6-8 tones per capita per year; Swilling et al, 2018). To date, manifestations have already surfaced that the resource consumption pattern is in clashes with nature's affordability (Parsons, 2021), and ecosystem services are under wide-ranging stress (Rahimi et al, 2021).…”