Estimating Permafrost Distribution in the Maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, Based on Climatic Conditions at Rock Glacier Sites

Sattler, Katrin; Anderson, Brian; Mackintosh, Andrew; Norton, Kevin; Róiste, Mairéad de

doi:10.3389/feart.2016.00004

Cited by 69 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Landforms whose production area was not clearly identifiable were discarded. In agreement with previous studies (Boeckli et al, 2012a;Sattler et al, 2016;Azócar et al, 2017), fossil rock glaciers were used as evidence of permafrost absence. While in active rock glaciers the rooting zone is often clearly identifiable, this is not the case for the fossil forms because of vegetation cover and re-arrangement of the surface after the ground thaw.…”

Section: Response Variable: Rock Glacier Inventorymentioning

confidence: 64%

“…Permafrost distribution was modeled using the statistical approach proposed already by several authors (Keller, 1992;Imhof, 1996;Frauenfelder et al, 1998;Lambiel and Reynard, 2001;Bodin et al, 2008;Deluigi and Lambiel, 2011;Boeckli et al, 2012a;Sattler et al, 2016;Azócar et al, 2017). Using the French Alps rock glaciers inventory (Roudnitska et al, 2016), we first hypothesized that the rock glaciers, here treated as dependent variable, are indirect indicators of the presence and absence of permafrost according to their activity.…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been demonstrated that the GLM is suitable for modeling permafrost distribution (Boeckli et al, 2012a;Sattler et al, 2016), periglacial landform existence and landslide occurrence (Goetz et al, 2015) as long as relationships between predictors and response are approximately linear and the sample size is larger than few hundred individuals ). This parametric model offers a good transparency to the user, which allows direct interpretation of the predictor variables role by examining the model coefficients.…”

Section: Statistical Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present study the production area, or rooting zone, only of active rock glaciers was considered as evidence of permafrost existence (Bodin et al, 2008;Sattler et al, 2016). The rooting zone is the area where the mixture of ice and debris is created, and due to an over-saturation with ice, permafrost creep starts generating the rock glacier (Barsch, 1996;Humlum, 1998).…”

Section: Response Variable: Rock Glacier Inventorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is done following the two main assumptions recurrent in the permafrost distribution modeling literature (Boeckli et al, 2012a;Sattler et al, 2016;Azócar et al, 2017). First, the rock glaciers indicate the presence (absence) of permafrost if they are active (fossil).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory

et al. 2017

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In the present study we used the first rock glacier inventory for the entire French Alps to model spatial permafrost distribution in the region. Climatic and topographic data evaluated at the rock glacier locations were used as predictor variables in a Generalized Linear Model. Model performances are strong, suggesting that, in agreement with several previous studies, this methodology is able to model accurately rock glacier distribution. A methodology to estimate model uncertainties is proposed, revealing that the subjectivity in the interpretation of rock glacier activity and contours may substantially bias the model. The model highlights a North-South trend in the regional pattern of permafrost distribution which is attributed to the climatic influences of the Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. Further analysis suggest that lower amounts of precipitation in the early winter and a thinner snow cover, as typically found in the Mediterranean area, could contribute to the existence of permafrost at higher temperatures compared to the Northern Alps. A comparison with the Alpine Permafrost Index Map (APIM) shows no major differences with our model, highlighting the very good predictive power of the APIM despite its tendency to slightly overestimate permafrost extension with respect to our database. The use of rock glaciers as indicators of permafrost existence despite their time response to climate change is discussed and an interpretation key is proposed in order to ensure the proper use of the model for research as well as for operational purposes.

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Section: Response Variable: Rock Glacier Inventorymentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Statistical Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Response Variable: Rock Glacier Inventorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory

et al. 2017

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The origins of Antarctic rock glaciers: periglacial or glacial features?

Guglielmin

Ponti

Forte

2018

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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In extensively glaciarized permafrost areas such as Northern Victoria Land, rock glaciers are quite common and are considered postglacial cryotic landforms. This paper reveals that two rock glaciers in Northern Victoria Land (at Adélie Cove and Strandline) that are located close to the Italian Antarctic Station (Mario Zucchelli Station) should have the same origin, although they were previously mapped as Holocene periglacial landforms and subsequently considered ice‐cored and ice‐cemented rock glaciers, respectively. In fact, by integrating different geophysical investigations and borehole stratigraphy, we show that both landforms have similar internal structures and cores of buried glacier ice. Therefore, this kind of rock glacier is possibly related to the long‐term creep of buried ice rather than to permafrost creep alone. This interpretation can be extended to the larger part of the features mapped as rock glaciers in Antarctica. In addition, a high‐reflective horizon sub‐parallel to the topographic surface was detected in Ground Probing Radar (GPR) data over a large part of the study area. Combining all the available information, we conclude that it cannot be straightforwardly interpreted as the base of the active layer but rather represents the top of a cryo‐lithological unit characterized by ice lenses within sediments that could be interpreted as the transition zone between the active layer and the long‐term permafrost table. More generally, knowledge of the subsurface ice content and, in particular, the occurrence of massive ice and its depth is crucial to make realistic and affordable forecasts regarding thermokarst development and related feedbacks involving GHG emissions, especially in the case of cryosoils rich in carbon content. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Decoupled kinematics of two neighbouring permafrost creeping landforms in the Eastern Italian Alps

Seppi

Carturan

Carton

et al. 2019

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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An overall acceleration of rock glacier displacement rates in the Alps has been observed in recent decades, with several cases of destabilization leading to potential geomorphological hazards. This behaviour has been attributed to the rising permafrost temperature, induced by atmospheric warming and regulated by thermo‐hydrological processes. Landforms derived from the interaction of glacier remnants and permafrost are widespread in mountain areas, but are less studied and monitored than talus rock glaciers. This work presents a comparative study of a talus rock glacier and a glacial‐permafrost composite landform (GPCL) in the Eastern Italian Alps. The two landforms are only 10 km apart, but have rather different elevation ranges and main slope aspects. The kinematics and ground thermal conditions were monitored from 2001 to 2015 along with geomorphological surveys, analyses of historical maps and remote sensing data. The dynamic behaviour of the rock glacier was similar to the majority of monitored rock glaciers in the Alps, with an acceleration after 2008 and a velocity peak in 2015. In contrast, the GPCL had a nearly unchanged displacement rate during the observation period. Statistical analyses of kinematic vs. nivo‐meteorological variables revealed a dynamic decoupling of the two landforms after 2008 that corresponds with increased winter snow accumulation. Although the kinematics of both landforms respond to ground surface temperature variations, the collected evidence suggests a different reaction of ground surface temperature to variations in the precipitation regime. This different reaction is likely due to local topo‐climatic conditions that affect snow redistribution by wind. The different reactions of the two systems to the same climatic forcing is likely a legacy of their different origins. GPCL dynamics result from interaction of permafrost and residual glacial dynamics that are associated with possible peculiarities in the internal/basal meltwater circulation, whose future response is uncertain and requires improved understanding. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Estimating Permafrost Distribution in the Maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, Based on Climatic Conditions at Rock Glacier Sites

Cited by 69 publications

References 60 publications

Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory

Permafrost Favorability Index: Spatial Modeling in the French Alps Using a Rock Glacier Inventory

The origins of Antarctic rock glaciers: periglacial or glacial features?

Decoupled kinematics of two neighbouring permafrost creeping landforms in the Eastern Italian Alps

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