Estimating Over-Conservatism in Airspace Constraint Management

Abstract

When severe weather is forecasted to affect air traffic operations, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) traffic flow managers may decide to restrict the air traffic flow through the affected airspace. Sometimes the restrictions put in place may constrain more traffic than necessary for safe and expeditious management. This paper refers to this phenomenon as Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) over-conservatism and the goal of this study is to quantify the impact of TMI over-conservatism on delay. This study focuses on a specific type of TMI, known as an Airspace Flow Program (AFP), and estimates the amount of over-conservatism in setting rates for AFPs by estimating maximum throughput under observed severe weather conditions. The calculated estimate is a rough order of magnitude (ROM) and is meant as an input for investment decisions regarding potential improvements to Traffic Flow Management (TFM) capabilities.