Estimating Neotropical palaeotemperature and palaeoprecipitation using plant family climatic optima

Punyasena, Surangi W.

doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2008.04.025

Cited by 37 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Precise, highly sophisticated methods (e.g. Punyasena, 2008;Harbert and Nixon, 2015) or methods using few, overly precise, values to characterise the niche space of the NLR (e.g. Greenwood et al, 2005) run a higher risk of being affected by violations of the nearest-livingrelative principle than methods that use semi-quantitative approximations of the niche (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

Grimm

Potts

2016

Clim. Past

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Abstract. The Coexistence Approach has been used to infer palaeoclimates for many Eurasian fossil plant assemblages. However, the theory that underpins the method has never been examined in detail. Here we discuss acknowledged and implicit assumptions and assess the statistical nature and pseudo-logic of the method. We also compare the Coexistence Approach theory with the active field of species distribution modelling. We argue that the assumptions will inevitably be violated to some degree and that the method lacks any substantive means to identify or quantify these violations. The absence of a statistical framework makes the method highly vulnerable to the vagaries of statistical outliers and exotic elements. In addition, we find numerous logical inconsistencies, such as how climate shifts are quantified (the use of a "centre value" of a coexistence interval) and the ability to reconstruct "extinct" climates from modern plant distributions. Given the problems that have surfaced in species distribution modelling, accurate and precise quantitative reconstructions of palaeoclimates (or even climate shifts) using the nearest-living-relative principle and rectilinear niches (the basis of the method) will not be possible. The Coexistence Approach can be summarised as an exercise that shoehorns a plant fossil assemblage into coexistence and then assumes that this must be the climate. Given the theoretical issues and methodological issues highlighted elsewhere, we suggest that the method be discontinued and that all past reconstructions be disregarded and revisited using less fallacious methods. We outline six steps for (further) validation of available and future taxon-based methods and advocate developing (semi-quantitative) methods that prioritise robustness over precision.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

Grimm

Potts

2016

Clim. Past

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“…Our modern surface sample estimates underestimate modern temperatures by 1-2 °C and overestimate precipitation by 350-660 mm/yr, placing doubt on the absolute values derived from this model. Yet, relative changes are clearly evident and are supported by comparisons of other modern pollen samples (Punyasena, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 64%

“…This includes many widespread and ecologically important taxa such as Fabaceae, Arecaceae, and Bignoniaceae. Although these families are present across the entire lowland Neotropics, variation in the abundance and species richness within these clades diverge with respect to temperature and precipitation (Punyasena, 2008;Punyasena et al, 2008). A probabilistic model of abundance distributions within families, therefore, can potentially be used to reconstruct paleoclimate from fossil pollen assemblages.…”

Section: Likelihood Model Of Vegetation Abundancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…We employ a probabilistic model of plant family abundances (Punyasena, 2008) and identify distinct decreases in mean annual temperature during the Pleistocene (1-3 °C cooler than present) and extended Pleistocene-Holocene drying (300^-00 mm/yr below present). In obtain-ing numeric estimates of climatic change for these two lowland Bolivian sites, our analysis demonstrates the unexplored potential of fossil pollen in reconstructing quantitative paleotemperature and paleoprecipitation histories when generic or species-level identifications are unavailable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative estimates of glacial and Holocene temperature and precipitation change in lowland Amazonian Bolivia

Punyasena

Mayle

McElwain

2008

Geol

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Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation change during the late Pleistocene and Holocene have been difficult to obtain for much of the lowland Neotropics. Using two published lacustrine pollen records and a climate-vegetation model based on the modern abundance distributions of 154 Neotropical plant families, we demonstrate how family-level counts of fossil pollen can be used to quantitatively reconstruct tropical paleoclimate and provide needed information on historic patterns of climatic change. With this family-level analysis, we show that one area of the lowland tropics, northeastern Bolivia, experienced cooling (1-3 °C) and drying (400 mm/yr), relative to present, during the late Pleistocene (50,000-12,000 calendar years before present [cal. yr B.P.]). Immediately prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 cal. yr B.P.), we observe a distinct transition from cooler temperatures and variable precipitation to a period of warmer temperatures and relative dryness that extends to the middle Holocene (5000-3000 cal. yr B.P.). This prolonged reduction in precipitation occurs against the backdrop of increasing atmospheric C0 2 concentrations, indicating that the presence of mixed savanna and dry-forest communities in northeastern Bolivia durng the LGM was not solely the result of low C0 2 levels, as suggested previously, but also lower precipitation. The results of our analysis demonstrate the potential for using the distribution and abundance structure of modern Neotropical plant families to infer paleoclimate from the fossil pollen record.

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“…Recent modern pollen rain studies (Burn et al 2010) and advances in Moraceae pollen taxonomy (Burn & Mayle 2008) reveal that this late Holocene ecotonal shift involved expansions in geographic extent of both riparian, seasonally-flooded, and terra firme upland, humid evergreen rainforest. That these late Holocene changes in palynological assemblages signify vegetation responses to increased precipitation is further supported by application of a climate-vegetation model (Punyasena 2008), based on the modern abundance …”

Section: Lagunas Chaplin and Bella Vistamentioning

confidence: 86%

A review of Holocene rainforest ecotonal dynamics at opposite ends of the Amazon – Bolivia <i>versus</i> Colombia

Mayle

2012

Geogr. Helv.

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Estimating Neotropical palaeotemperature and palaeoprecipitation using plant family climatic optima

Cited by 37 publications

References 85 publications

Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

Quantitative estimates of glacial and Holocene temperature and precipitation change in lowland Amazonian Bolivia

A review of Holocene rainforest ecotonal dynamics at opposite ends of the Amazon – Bolivia <i>versus</i> Colombia

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Estimating Neotropical palaeotemperature and palaeoprecipitation using plant family climatic optima

Cited by 37 publications

References 85 publications

Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

Quantitative estimates of glacial and Holocene temperature and precipitation change in lowland Amazonian Bolivia

A review of Holocene rainforest ecotonal dynamics at opposite ends of the Amazon – Bolivia &lt;i&gt;versus&lt;/i&gt; Colombia

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Product

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A review of Holocene rainforest ecotonal dynamics at opposite ends of the Amazon – Bolivia <i>versus</i> Colombia