Estimating individual physical capability (IPC) to make journeys by bicycle

Abstract

We propose a novel method to estimate capability to make bicycle journeys, specifically considering the individual physical capability (IPC) of entire populations of individuals from all population segments of an area, not just current cyclists. IPC considers the physical constraints on the maximum distance people could cycle given the typical topography of where they live (Distance IPC), and then estimates their ability to make a particular journey (Journey IPC). IPC, when estimated in this way for a particular point in time, may be informed by antecedent behavioral choices and capabilities, and may be a constraint or enabler of subsequent capabilities, potential adaptations and behavior. The focus of the present paper is on explaining a generic method of estimating Distance IPC and Journey IPC by constructing an individually based spatially fine-grained model. We show how such an individual-level model may be implemented for a population resident in many small spatial zones by use of spatial micro-simulation (population synthesis), to generate the individual attributes required as inputs to the model. We present a case-study for the city of Leeds, UK. We explain the range of data sources used, explore sensitivity of the results to assumptions of the model, and illustrate the ability of the model to simulate the effects of policies. Finally, we identify several possible application areas and opportunities to further develop the model.

Impact of E-Bikes on Cycling in Hilly Areas: Participants’ Experience of Electrically-Assisted Cycling in a UK Study

“…Subsequent work by Philips et al [23,24] has shown that, if hilliness is defined according to the slope of roads within an area, 8% of the population in England live in small areas (LSOAs-Lower Super Output Areas-The areal units defined for analysing the UK Census) where the roads in their locale are predominantly over 4%, and many more will live in areas where at least some of the roads are this steep, meaning that many potential cyclists will be affected.…”

Active Travel’s Contribution to Climate Change Mitigation: Research Summary and Outlook

“…E-bikes in particular have significant substitution potential, some call them a 'game changer', as e-bikers have been found to take longer trips by e-bike and bicycle, compared to cyclists, with larger potential for mode substitution away from cars (Castro et al, 2019, Mason et al, 2015, Kroesen, 2017. It has been estimated that e-bikes, if used to replace car travel, have the 'physical capability' (simulated as how far people are capable of travelling) to cut car CO2 emissions in England by up to 50% (about 30 million tonnes per year) (Philips et al, 2018, Philips et al, 2020. The greatest opportunities were found to be in rural and sub-urban settings: city dwellers already have many low-carbon travel options, so the greatest impact would be on encouraging e-bike use outside urban areas.…”

Bicycle network performance: Assessing the directness of bicycle facilities through connectivity measures, a Montreal, Canada case study

“…: leisure destinations, healthcare services) to capture different needs and behavior. Further studies could also build on this methodology to model the cost coefficient as a function of socio-demographic and behavioral variables, in order to be able to subsequently apply it to the general population, as done in a recent study assessing the physical capability to travel by bicycle (Philips, Watling, & Timms, 2018). The choice of the thresholds also entails equity implications.…”