Estimating Incumbency Effects Using Regression Discontinuity Design

Abstract

In recent years, research on the incumbency effect using a regression discontinuity design has flourished. Although the regression discontinuity design has allowed scholars to examine the incumbency effect in various electoral settings, previous studies have not measured what has traditionally been defined as the incumbency (dis)advantage. In this paper, I bring together methods from previous research, provide a consistent exposition thereof, and highlight some of the challenges of estimation and interpretation by applying these methods to election data from 10 different electoral settings.

Is Incumbency Advantage Gendered?

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How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies

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Turnover and Accountability in Africa's Parliaments

“…cies with first-past-the-post electoral systems. Song (2018), for example, reports an unconditional incumbency advantage above 20pp among Canadian legislators, while De Magalhaes and Hirvonen (2019) cite estimates of 30pp among British and 45pp among American legislators.…”