Estimating illicit cigarette consumption using a tax-gap approach, India

Goodchild, Mark; Valavan, Thamizh; Sinha, Parikhit; Tullu, Fikru

doi:10.2471/blt.20.251447

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…In order to allow for measurement error in both the consumption survey and our use of linear interpolation, we developed four different consumption estimates (ultra-low, lower, central, and upper), of which the lower and higher consumption estimates increased/decreased by 10% relative to our central estimates to offer some sensitivity analysis in our calculations (Chen et al 2015;Goodchild, Valavan et al 2020) (see Supplemental Material). Furthermore, since we are dealing with point estimates, we could not create confidence intervals thus the sensitivity analysis is important to develop the different consumption scenarios.…”

Section: Tobacco Consumption and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring Malaysia’s Illicit Tobacco Trade: An Excise Tax Gap Analysis

Koya¹,

Branston²,

Gallagher

2022

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development

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There is a lack of independent data regarding the illicit tobacco trade in Malaysia. Tobacco Industry (TI) commissioned data has previously been criticised for overestimating the illicit tobacco trade and for a lack of methodological transparency. The aim of this study is to present an independent overview of Malaysia's illicit tobacco market by measuring the country's factory-made cigarette excise tax gap. Using data sourced from Malaysian government publications we calculate the excise tax gap between 2011 and 2019 based on existing approaches whereby the excise tax actually paid is compared with that theoretically due based on estimates of total tobacco consumption. For sensitivity analysis, we established 4 different scenarios of tobacco consumption levels.

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Section: Tobacco Consumption and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring Malaysia’s Illicit Tobacco Trade: An Excise Tax Gap Analysis

Koya¹,

Branston²,

Gallagher

2022

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development

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“…Global evidence demonstrates a systematic and consistent gap between academic and industry estimates of the illicit cigarette trade in many developing countries like India (2.73% and 6% vs 20%),18 19 Vietnam (20% less than industry estimate),20 Colombia (3.5% vs 14%)21 and Lithuania (10.7% vs 17%) 22…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extent of illicit cigarette sales in Nepal: findings from a retail survey

et al. 2023

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IntroductionIncreasing the tax on cigarettes is widely considered the most effective method to reduce its consumption. However, Nepal has a low cigarette tax as policymakers in Nepal are concerned about illicit trade of cigarettes if taxes are increased.MethodsThe study employed a retail survey approach used in India suitable for countries with prevalent loose cigarette sales, with improved methodology. In 2021, empty cigarette packs generated in a day’s loose cigarette sales were collected directly from cigarette retailers from 23 primary sampling units covering rural/urban, geographic divisions, border/non-border to India and tobacco factory locations. The central points of each primary sampling unit were identified, and retailers were selected for the survey. A cigarette pack was classified as illicit if it had at least one of the following attributes: (a) no authentic excise duty sticker, (b) no graphic health warning, (c) no mention of ‘maximum retail price/MRP’ and (d) no production date, name, address and trademark.FindingsWe collected 4307 empty cigarette packs from 1204 retailers and 0.33% of them were classified as illicit. The estimates varied across location with the highest prevalence of illicit packs in Kathmandu (1.25%). All the illicit cigarettes were imported and were high-priced brands (>90%), mostly found in urban areas and not bordering India.ConclusionOur estimate of the illicit cigarette market share of 0.33% suggests that the industry’s statement of 25% is grossly overstated.

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Estimating the weight of consumed tobacco product waste in various Indian states: a novel method to assess the potential burden of tobacco product waste

Jain,

Bhardwaj,

Joshi

et al. 2023

Tob Control

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IntroductionThe direct morbidity and mortality caused by tobacco are well documented, but such products also contribute to a range of environmental pollutants resulting from tobacco product waste. No previous studies have yet quantified tobacco product waste in a low-income and middle-income country (LMIC). This study estimates the potential annual waste generated due to consumption of smoked and smokeless tobacco products in India and its states.MethodologyWe systematically collected samples of smoked and smokeless tobacco products from 33 districts of 17 Indian states/union territories. Stratified weights of plastic, paper, foil and filter packaging components, and gross empty package weights were recorded. Prevalence of smoking and smokeless tobacco use at national and state-level estimates was derived from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (2016–2017) to quantify waste potentially generated by tobacco products.ResultsWe included 222 brands of tobacco products (70 cigarette, 94 bidi and 58 smokeless tobacco brands) in the final analysis. A total of 170 331 (±29 332) tonnes of waste was estimated to be generated annually, out of which 43.2% was plastic, 3.6% was foil and 0.8% was filter. Two-thirds of the overall waste was contributed by smokeless products alone. Maximum waste was generated in Uttar Pradesh (20.9%; 35 723.7±6151.6 tonnes), Maharashtra (8.9%; 15 116.84±2603.12 tonnes) and West Bengal (8.6%; 14 636.32±2520.37 tonnes).ConclusionThis study provides first of its kind national-level evidence on the types (plastic, paper, foil and filter) and quantity of waste potentially generated by use of tobacco products in India. Similar studies from other LMICs can serve to raise consciousness about many negative environmental impacts of tobacco products and need for policies to address them.

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Estimating illicit cigarette consumption using a tax-gap approach, India

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Measuring Malaysia’s Illicit Tobacco Trade: An Excise Tax Gap Analysis

Measuring Malaysia’s Illicit Tobacco Trade: An Excise Tax Gap Analysis

Extent of illicit cigarette sales in Nepal: findings from a retail survey

Estimating the weight of consumed tobacco product waste in various Indian states: a novel method to assess the potential burden of tobacco product waste

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