Estimating Neospora caninum prevalence in wildlife populations using Bayesian inference

Abstract

Prevalence of disease in wildlife populations, which is necessary for developing disease models and conducting epidemiologic analyses, is often understudied. Laboratory tests used to screen for diseases in wildlife populations often are validated only for domestic animals. Consequently, the use of these tests for wildlife populations may lead to inaccurate estimates of disease prevalence. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian latent class analysis (LCA) in determining the specificity and sensitivity of a competitive enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA; VMRD ®, Inc.) serologic test used to identify exposure to Neospora caninum (hereafter N. caninum) in three wildlife populations in southeastern Ohio, USA. True prevalence of N. caninum exposure in these populations was estimated to range from 0.1% to 3.1% in American bison (Bison bison), 51.0% to 53.8% in Père David's deer (Elaphurus davidianus), and 40.0% to 45.9% in white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). The accuracy of the cELISA in American bison and Père David's deer was estimated to be close to the 96% sensitivity and 99% specificity reported by the manufacturer. Sensitivity in white‐tailed deer, however, ranged from 78.9% to 99.9%. Apparent prevalence of N. caninum from the test results is not equal to the true prevalence in white‐tailed deer and Père David's deer populations. Even when these species inhabit the same community, the true prevalence in the two deer populations differed from the true prevalence in the American bison population. Variances in prevalence for some species suggest differences in the epidemiology of N. caninum for these colocated populations. Bayesian LCA methods could be used as in this example to overcome some of the constraints on validating tests in wildlife species. The ability to accurately evaluate disease status and prevalence in a population improves our understanding of the epidemiology of multihost pathogen systems at the community level.

Use of hidden Markov capture–recapture models to estimate abundance in the presence of uncertainty: Application to the estimation of prevalence of hybrids in animal populations

“…The relative abundance (prevalence) of different population segments is a fundamental piece of information to understand processes in ecology, evolution, and conservation. For example, the prevalence of infected individuals is critical to understand the mechanisms driving disease dynamics (Jennelle, Cooch, Conroy, & Senar, ; Moreno‐Torres, Wolfe, Saville, & Garabed, ); the prevalence of key demographic categories (e.g., mature females) is needed to assess the viability of endangered populations (Caswell, ) and when hybridization represents a threat, the prevalence of admixed individuals is needed to evaluate the appropriate management option (Allendorf, Leary, Spruell, & Wenburg, ).…”

Host species heterogeneity in the epidemiology of Nesopora caninum

“…Additionally, we limited our sampling to a maximum of three cows selected per owner/seller per auction day. Targeted townships were located within 25 km radius from the Wild s. The area selected in this study (25 km radius) was based on the average home range of coyotes (17.5 km 2 ) and follows previous study design [ 23 ]. The auction was used for sampling because adequate management facilities do not exist on most farms in this area to effectively restrain cattle for blood collection.…”

“…In our study area in southeastern Ohio, differences in estimated true prevalence for intermediate ruminant host species suggested differences in the epidemiology of N . caninum for these interacting populations [ 22 ]. To understand why those differences were found, an evaluation of the environmental phase of N .…”

“…caninum shed in wild canid scats was pursued. Results suggested that in our study population, environmental transmission to ruminants is likely rare [ 23 ]. Consequently, our next logical step was to evaluate host species heterogeneity in the epidemiology of N .…”

Base protocol for real time active random surveillance of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) – Adapting veterinary methodology to public health

“…the "true" prevalence (TP) of infected individuals (both symptomatic and not) and, if no cases are found, the confidence in "freedom" (PFree). The TP is the proportion of truly infected that is estimated considering the use of imperfect tests [3]. The PFree instead, is the confidence that disease is absent in a population, or if present, it is below a (beforehand) decided hypothetical cut-off prevalence Pu.…”