Estimating expected life-years and risk factor associations with mortality in Finland: cohort study

Abstract

ObjectiveTo develop a tool to inform individuals and general practitioners about benefits of lifestyle changes by providing estimates of the expected age of death (EAD) for different risk factor values, and for those who plan and decide on preventive activities and health services at population level, to calculate potential need for these.DesignProspective cohort study to estimate EAD using a model with 27 established risk factors, categorised into four groups: (1) sociodemographic background and medical history, (2) lifestyles, (3) life satisfaction, and (4) biological risk factors. We apply a Poisson regression model on the survival data split into 1-year intervals.ParticipantsTotal of 38 549 participants aged 25–74 years at baseline of the National FINRISK Study between 1987 and 2007.Primary outcome measuresRegister-based comprehensive mortality data from 1987 to 2014 with an average follow-up time of 16 years and 4310 deaths.ResultsAlmost all risk factors included in the model were statistically significantly associated with death. The largest influence on the EAD appeared to be a current heavy smoker versus a never smoker as the EAD for a 30-year-old man decreased from 86.8 years, which corresponds to the reference values of the risk factors, to 80.2 years. Diabetes decreased EAD by >6.6 years. Whole or full milk consumers had 3.4 years lower EAD compared with those consuming skimmed milk. Physically inactive men had 2.4 years lower EAD than those with high activity. Men who found their life almost unbearable due to stress had 2.8 years lower EAD.ConclusionsThe biological risk factors and lifestyles, and the factors connected with life satisfaction were clearly associated with EAD. Our model for estimating a person’s EAD can be used to motivate lifestyle changes.

Life satisfaction and depressive symptoms of mentally active older adults in Poland: a cross-sectional study

“…Similar research results indicating the benefits of physical activity in older adults were shown in studies by Aguilar-Latorre et al [ 13 ], Härkänen et al [ 14 ], and Kim et al [ 15 ].…”

STAR Duodecim eHealth Tool to Recognize Chronic Disease Risk Factors and Change Unhealthy Lifestyle Choices Among the Long-Term Unemployed: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Validation Study

“…Long-term illnesses and multimorbidity have become more common, thus reducing quality of life and increasing the demand for health care services [1,2]. Lifestyle choices have a significant impact on the expected onset of diseases, age of death, risk factors concerning long-term illnesses, and multimorbidity [1,[3][4][5]. Preventable lifestyle-related risk factors affecting chronic morbidity and mortality have been recognized, most notably smoking, the harmful use of alcohol, physical inactivity, and an unhealthy diet [5,6].…”

Reaching 80 Years of Age: Clinical, Behavioral, and Psychosocial Related Risk Factors in a Large Cohort of Israeli Working Men

“…Among the well-established risk factors determining longevity recognized to date are smoking habits [ 12 , 13 ], diabetes mellitus [ 14 ], obesity [ 14 ], cardiovascular health [ 15 ], and sedentary lifestyle [ 15 ]. While it is generally recognized that married people live longer [ 16 , 17 ] and the very presence of social relationships in one’s life has a positive effect on one’s health and longevity [ 18 , 19 , 20 ], few studies so far have examined the impact of quality of midlife family relationships on survival among men. Fewer studies still focused on the conjunction of physiological, behavioral, and psychological factors and their effect on longevity.…”