Estimating Egypt's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Mongardini, Joannes

doi:10.5089/9781451842159.001

Cited by 33 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Doroodian et al (2002) perform a similar analysis for Turkey and also find that the terms of trade are stationary. Mongardini (1998) concludes that, in the case of Egypt, the terms of trade are fractionally integrated.…”

Section: Iii2 Estimation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Empirical applications of the BEER approach to developing and emerging countries are extensive. Examples include: Elbadawi (1994) for Chile, Ghana and India; Mongardini (1998) for Egypt; Spatafora and Stavrev (2003) for Russia; MacDonald and Ricci (2003) for South Africa; Doroodian et al (2002) for Turkey;Mathisen (2003) for Malawi; and Edwards (1994), who estimates the model for a panel of 12 developing and emerging economies. 2 The approach has also been extensively employed in the context of Central and Eastern Europe (see Égert, 2004, for an overview).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Malaysian Ringgit: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Koske

2008

Asian Economic Journal

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Drawing on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate approaches, this paper assesses the equilibrium value of the real effective exchange rate of the Malaysian ringgit over the past 25 years. For 2005, when the Malaysian authorities exited from the peg with the US dollar, both models determine a slight undervaluation of the currency. Openness and real GDP per capita have been the main drivers of real exchange rate movements in the past, although non‐tradable productivity, government consumption, and net foreign assets have also had a sizable impact. The paper also highlights the limitations of applying the two approaches in the context of emerging countries.

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Section: Iii2 Estimation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Malaysian Ringgit: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Koske

2008

Asian Economic Journal

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“…The literature seems to privilege the negative effect of government spending on the REER since, and unlike the private sector, government tends to spend more resources on nontradable sectors than on tradable Baffes et al, (1999) and Mongardini, (1998).…”

Section: The Real Effectiveexchange Rate (Reer)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate BEER to Morocco1980Q1–2012Q4

Lebdaoui¹

2013

IJEF

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This study is an attempt to estimate the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate in Morocco. Since the equilibrium value is unobservable, we use a set of fundamentals supposed to affect the exchange rate movements including the real net capital flows (NKF), terms of trade shocks (TOT), government fiscal stance (GOV), foreign reserve level (RES), index of monetary policy (MOP) and relative productivity (PROD) to get it. Using quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2012Q4, the empirical analysis commences by checking the stationarity of the variables that turn out to be all stationary at first difference. Then, using the cointegration test and the Vector-Error Correction Model of the Moroccan Dirham exchange rate as function of the indicated macroeconomic fundamentals, the regression shows that the main fluctuations of the real effective exchange rate are due to trade openness, government spending, terms of trade, the productivity progress, monetary policy and net capital inflow. Accordingly, and using HP decomposition filter we figure out three periods of under/overvaluation ranging from 2.80% under to 2.16% over equilibrium level, furthermore, the misalignment from the equilibrium level needs from five to six years to be eliminated.

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“…They are all rooted in the previous stage of the policy debate about exchange rate regimes, as outlined above. SRERs were initially estimated for industrial countries (see Artis, Taylor, 1993;Feyzioclu, 1997), and subsequently extended to developing countries (see Elbadawi, Soto, 1997;Mongardini, 1998 andMacDonald, Ricci, 2003) and to the former transition economies (see Halpern, Wyplosz, 1997;De Broeck, Sløk, 2001;Égert, 2002a, 2002bFrait, Komárek, 2001 andRahn, 2003). The FRER concept itself was first suggested in Šmídková, Barrel, Holland (2002).…”

Section: Sustainable and Fundamental Real Exchange Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us

Šmídková¹,

Bulı́ř²

2005

Prague Economic Papers

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Abstract:Computed fundamental real exchange rates in four new EU members point to difficulties in jointly entering the ERM II soon after the EU entry. Three currencies out of the four were overvalued prior to EU entry. Computations suggest that it is unlikely that the Czech, Hungarian and Polish economies will maintain low inflation during 2004 -2010 and at the same time keep their currencies within the ERM II easily. Moreover, the experience of Greece, Portugal and Spain -viewed through fundamental real exchange rate goggles -indicates more stable real exchange rate paths and smaller currency misalignments prior to euro adoption than can be expected from the newcomers in the forthcoming years. If the newcomers sail too fast towards the euro, their sailing may not be as smooth as that of the front runners.

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Estimating Egypt's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Cited by 33 publications

References 7 publications

Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Malaysian Ringgit: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Malaysian Ringgit: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate BEER to Morocco1980Q1–2012Q4

Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us

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