Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach

Sözmen, Kaan; Unal, Belgin; Capewell, Simon; Critchley, Julia; O’Flaherty, Martı́n

doi:10.1007/s00038-014-0622-2

Cited by 19 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Our model is simple enough to apply to other developing countries with similarly limited data, and its flexibility can be demonstrated by appropriately adjusting the transition rates [53]. Our predictions can also provide the basis of future modelling studies aiming to quantify both monetary costs and future disease burden associated with excess weight in India [54][55][56][57][58].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040

Luhar¹,

Timæus²,

Jones³

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

154

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Background In India, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased rapidly in recent decades. Given the association between overweight and obesity with many non-communicable diseases, forecasts of the future prevalence of overweight and obesity can help inform policy in a country where around one sixth of the world's population resides. Methods We used a system of multi-state life tables to forecast overweight and obesity prevalence among Indians aged 20-69 years by age, sex and urban/rural residence to 2040. We estimated the incidence and initial prevalence of overweight using nationally representative data from the National Family Health Surveys 3 and 4, and the Study on global AGEing and adult health, waves 0 and 1. We forecasted future mortality, using the Lee-Carter model fitted life tables reported by the Sample Registration System, and adjusted the mortality rates for Body Mass Index using relative risks from the literature. Results The prevalence of overweight will more than double among Indian adults aged 20-69 years between 2010 and 2040, while the prevalence of obesity will triple. Specifically, the prevalence of overweight and obesity will reach 30.5% (27.4%-34.4%) and 9.5% (5.4%-13.3%) among men, and 27.4% (24.5%-30.6%) and 13.9% (10.1%-16.9%) among women, respectively, by 2040. The largest increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity between 2010 and 2040 is expected to be in older ages, and we found a larger relative increase in overweight and obesity in rural areas compared to urban areas. The largest relative increase in overweight and obesity prevalence was forecast to occur at older age groups.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040

Luhar¹,

Timæus²,

Jones³

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

154

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“…Obesity has become a major problem for Turkish women and is due to changes in lifestyle, industrialization, and migration from rural to urban areas 7. Our study was conducted in the Turkish capital of Ankara, located in the central region of the country.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors affecting pregnancy weight gain and relationships with maternal/fetal outcomes in Turkey

Akgün

Keskin

Üstüner

et al. 2017

SMJ

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Objectives:To determine the effects of pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and gestational weight gain on maternal and fetal complications, and to examine whether Turkish women achieve the recommended gestational weight gain. We also investigated the relationship between pregnancy weight gain and mode of delivery, with an examination of maternal anthropometry.Methods:A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on a population of 986 pregnant women between November 2011 and November 2015 at Atatürk Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey. Maternal age, BMI, monthly weight gain during pregnancy, infant birth weight, gender, and maternal and fetal adverse outcomes were evaluated.Results:The frequency of maternal complications was positively associated with elevated pre-pregnancy BMI (p<0.05), and weight gain during pregnancy was associated with parity and increased infant birth weight (p<0.05). However, no correlations were observed between mean pregnancy weight gain and maternal complications (p>0.05). The percentage of women who gained the Institute of Medicine (IOM)-recommended amount of weight was the highest in the underweight BMI group (54.1%) and the lowest in the obese BMI group (24.3%). Pregnancy weight gain exceeded IOM recommendations in the overweight (56.3%) and obese (52.5%) groups.Conclusions:While maternal weight gain during pregnancy affects neonatal body weight, higher pre-pregnancy BMI has an adverse effect on recommended weight gain during pregnancy, with increased maternal complications.

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“…Current and projected population-level trend data for diabetes and BMI were obtained from another published model for Turkey. 17 18 21 Physical inactivity and F&V consumption trend data were generated by using information from national and regional surveys. 6 22–24 All risk factor data trends for year 2025 were projected by using the available data and applying linear regression method by year and related prevalence rates assuming the same trend will continue in the future.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study

et al. 2016

Self Cite

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ObjectiveThis study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025.DesignA CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025.SettingUsing risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties.SubjectProjected populations in 2025 (aged 25–84) of 54 million in Turkey.ResultsAssuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ∼25 635 (range: 20 290–31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780–55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence.ConclusionsOnly modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey.

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Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach

Abstract: Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.

Cited by 19 publications

References 32 publications

Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040

Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040

Factors affecting pregnancy weight gain and relationships with maternal/fetal outcomes in Turkey

Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study

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