Estimating Destination of Bus Trips Considering Trip Type Characteristics

Abstract

In recent years, local governments have been using transportation card data to monitor the use of public transport and improve the service. However, local governments that are applying a single-fare scheme are experiencing difficulties in using data for accurate identification of real travel patterns, policy decision support, etc. because the information on alighting stops of users is missing. This policy limits its functionality of utilizing data such as accurate identification of real travel patterns, policy decision support, etc. Various studies to overcome this limitation have been conducted in South Korea and other countries to develop es-timation methodologies of alighting stops. Even existing studies introduce an advanced method, we found the margin for better accuracy by combining various estimation methodologies for estimating alighting stops. This study reviewed previously conducted studies to classify data with missing alighting stop information into trip types and then applied an appropriate alighting stop estimation methodology for the characteristics of each trip type by stage. The proposed method is evaluated by utilizing transportation card data of the Seoul metropolitan area and checked the accuracy for each standard of allowable error for sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, the number of trips, accuracy, and valid tag rate were checked for each type to examine the need for classifying the trip types. Finally, our evaluation also examines the impact of classifying trip types on estimation accuracy. The evaluation criteria are accuracy of the number of trips and valid tag rate. The analysis shows that the stage-by-stage estimation methodology based on the trip type proposed in this study can es-timate users’ destinations more accurately than previous studies. Furthermore, based on the construction of nearly 100% valid tag data, this study differs from prior studies.