Estimating All-Cause Deaths Averted in the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in Italy
Giovanni Corrao,
Gloria Porcu,
Alina Tratsevich
et al.
Abstract:Comparing deaths averted by vaccination campaigns is a crucial public health endeavour. Excess all-cause deaths better reflect the impact of the pandemic than COVID-19 deaths. We used a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors model to regress daily all-cause deaths on annual trend, seasonality, and environmental temperature in three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche and Sicily) from 2015 to 2019. The model was used to forecast excess deaths during the vaccinal period (December … Show more
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