Estimating age-dependent performance in paired comparisons competitions: application to snooker

Abstract

We first present a model for the outcome of snooker matches in which player strengths are allowed to vary deterministically with time. The results allow us to identify the greatest players of all time, and to examine the relationship between age and performance. Second, we present a random effects model which uses the estimated strengths from our first model, to forecast player performance, and to assess the extent to which early promise has been maintained. Ronnie O’Sullivan and Stephen Hendry are the two candidates for the title of the greatest of all time. We find that peak performance occurs between the ages of 25 and 30, younger than would be expected when compared to findings in other sports. Outside sport, these findings contribute to the general literature on variation of performance with age.