Estimating aerosol transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City public schools during reopening

Pavilonis, Brian; Ierardi, A. Michael; Levine, Leon; Mirer, Franklin E.; Kelvin, Elizabeth A.

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2021.110805

Cited by 35 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Data for the conditional infection probabilities shown in the plot are provided in a table in the supplemental information. We have included a dashed line at a conditional probability of 0.001 on the plot for reference, this value was suggested in the recent publication of Buonanno et al (Buonanno et al, 2020a) The probabilities predicted here align well with those estimated in other works for conditional infection probabilities in similar classroom spaces when accounting for differences in exposure duration between the studies (Pavilonis et al, 2021;Shen et al, 2021;Stabile et al, 2021). For example, Plavilonis et al (Pavilonis et al, 2021) found estimated mean conditional infection probabilites of 0.35 (35%)…”

Section: Results For Specific Interventionssupporting

confidence: 72%

“…The Wells-Riley model has also been used to study SARS-CoV-2 transmission in classrooms, for examples see (Foster and Kinzel, 2021;Pavilonis et al, 2021;Shen et al, 2021 et al, 2021) used a Wells-Riley model to estimate the aerosol transmission risk in New York City public schools for different exposure scenarios and found mean transmission probabilities (for all rooms considered) between 0.043 and 0.37, with the highest probabilities corresponding to transmission from teacher to students (neither wearing masks) for an exposure duration of 6.3 hr. The Wells-Riley model was also used to look at the impact of air changes per hour (Stabile et al, 2021;Shen et al, 2021) and other interventions (Shen et al, 2021;Zhang, 2020) on transmission risk in classrooms for different scenarios.…”

Section: Wells-riley Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Strategies to minimize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in classroom settings: combined impacts of ventilation and mask effective filtration efficiency

Rothamer

Sanders

2021

Science and Technology for the Built Environment

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Strong evidence exists indicating that aerosol transmission of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a significant transmission modality. We experimentally evaluated the impact of ventilation on aerosol dynamics and distribution along with the effective filtration efficiency (EFE) of four different mask types, with and without mask fitters, in a classroom setting. These were A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t used to estimate aerosol conditional infection probability using the Wells-Riley model for three scenarios with different ventilation and mask interventions. Aerosol measurements confirmed that aerosol in the room was uniform within a factor of 2 for distances > 2 m from the source. Mask EFE results demonstrate that most masks fit poorly with estimated leakage rates typically > 50%. However, EFEs approaching the mask material FE were achievable using mask fitters. Infection probability estimates indicate that ventilation alone is not able to achieve probabilities < 0.01 (1%). The use of moderate to high EFE masks reduces infection probability, > 5x in some cases. Reductions provided by ventilation and masks are synergistic and multiplicative. The results reinforce the use of properly donned masks to achieve reduced aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and motivate improvements in the EFE of masks through improved design or use of mask fitters.

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Section: Results For Specific Interventionssupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Wells-riley Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategies to minimize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in classroom settings: combined impacts of ventilation and mask effective filtration efficiency

Rothamer

Sanders

2021

Science and Technology for the Built Environment

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“…For such schools, a potential approach to monitor and minimize the virus spread in indoor environments could be the use of a proxy providing real-time information on the virus concentration indoors then suggesting to apply manual ventilation procedures accordingly. Exhaled CO 2 has been proposed as a possible proxy for virus transmission indoors as it is a commonly used indicator of the ventilation rate and, more generally, indoor air quality [ [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] ]. While in principle exhaled CO 2 could be a good proxy for indoor-generated gaseous pollutants (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ventilation procedures to minimize the airborne transmission of viruses in classrooms

Stabile

Pacitto

Mikszewski

et al. 2021

Building and Environment

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Reducing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through indoor air is the key challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic. Crowded indoor environments, such as schools, represent possible hotspots for virus transmission since the basic non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures applied so far (e.g. social distancing) do not eliminate the airborne transmission mode. There is widespread consensus that improved ventilation is needed to minimize the transmission potential of airborne viruses in schools, whether through mechanical systems or ad-hoc manual airing procedures in naturally ventilated buildings. However, there remains significant uncertainty surrounding exactly what ventilation rates are required, and how to best achieve these targets with limited time and resources. This paper uses a mass balance approach to quantify the ability of both mechanical ventilation and ad-hoc airing procedures to mitigate airborne transmission risk in the classroom environment. For naturally-ventilated classrooms, we propose a novel feedback control strategy using CO 2 concentrations to continuously monitor and adjust the airing procedure. Our case studies show how such procedures can be applied in the real world to support the reopening of schools during the pandemic. Our results also show the inadequacy of relying on absolute CO 2 concentration thresholds as the sole indicator of airborne transmission risk.

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“…Some studies propose the occupants' exhaled CO2 as a possible proxy for virus spreading in an indoor environment [12]. Still, this approach could be considered an oversimplified way to cope with the problem of the virus spread in indoor environments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ventilation System Operation to Minimize the COVID-19 Airborne Transmission in Schools

Stabile¹,

Pacitto²,

Buonanno³

et al. 2021

TI-IJES

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Minimizing the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission is essential to face the COVID-19 pandemic. This is even more important for highly crowded indoor environments, e.g. schools, where the mitigation solutions based on social distancing and hand washing seem to be not effective to reduce the virus airborne transmission mode, which is the main route of transmission. To minimize the airborne virus transmission a proper ventilation is necessary. In the study, a simplified mass balance equation (box-model) was applied to school scenarios in order to determine the required conditions to maintain the infection risk below an acceptable level. In particular, the required air exchange rates for mechanically-ventilated classrooms and the adequate airing procedures for naturally ventilated classrooms were determined. Moreover, for naturally ventilated classrooms, a control strategy based on the measurement of CO2 indoor concentration was also developed.

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Estimating aerosol transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City public schools during reopening

Cited by 35 publications

References 38 publications

Strategies to minimize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in classroom settings: combined impacts of ventilation and mask effective filtration efficiency

Strategies to minimize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in classroom settings: combined impacts of ventilation and mask effective filtration efficiency

Ventilation procedures to minimize the airborne transmission of viruses in classrooms

Ventilation System Operation to Minimize the COVID-19 Airborne Transmission in Schools

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