Estimates of the national trend of drugs use during 2000–2030 in China: A population-based mathematical model

Su, Shu; Fairley, C; Mao, Limin; Medland, Nicholas; Jing, Jun; Cheng, Feng; Zhang, Lei

doi:10.1016/j.addbeh.2019.01.022

Cited by 17 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…We constructed a compartmental model to estimate HIV, HCV and syphilis epidemics in the dynamic drug-use trend by three scenarios: SD-only use, heroin-only use and polydrug use based on Monte Carlo simulations. The details of population estimation of the changing trend within three subgroups of people who use drugs were presented in our previous published study 6. Our model was extended to estimate HIV, HCV and syphilis epidemics among three groups in this study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, there is no BBVSTIs data reported in specific drug-use subgroups or regions. Also, our previous model has estimated the number of people who use drugs will increase, and there is a changing trend of drug use that more monodrug use becomes polydrug use,6 and it will likely have impacts on the transmission modes of these infections as well. SDs have different effects from heroin; cumulating evidence has indicated that the common SDs are shown to be associated with higher risk sexual behaviours (eg, multiple sexual partners and condomless sex) 7 8.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimation of the impact of changing drug-use trend on HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis epidemics among people who use synthetic drug-only, polydrug and heroin-only during 2005–2035 in China: modelling study

Fairley

Mao

et al. 2020

Sex Transm Infect

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ObjectiveThe rapid expansion of the recreational drug market becomes a global health concern. It is worrying that the bacterial and viral infection epidemics linking to drug use may worsen accordingly. This study aimed to estimate the impacts of changing trend and behaviours of using heroin only, synthetic drug (SD) only and polydrug (using SD and heroin concurrently) on HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and syphilis epidemics among people who use drugs in China by 2035.MethodsWe constructed a compartmental model to estimate HIV, HCV and syphilis epidemics in the dynamic drug-use trend by three scenarios: SD-only use, heroin-only use and polydrug use based on Monte Carlo simulations. The parameters for the model were collected from a comprehensive literature search.ResultsOur model estimated that polydrug use led to the highest HIV and HCV prevalence among three drug-use patterns. The prevalences were projected to increase from 10.9% (95% CI 10.2% to 11.5%) and 61.7% (95% CI 59.4% to 62.5%) in 2005 to 19.0% (95% CI 17.3% to 20.7%) and 69.1% (95% CI 67.3% to 69.5%), respectively, in 2035 among people using polydrug. Similarly, HIV and HCV prevalence in the SD-only group were projected to increase from 0.4% (95% CI 0.3% to 0.4%) and 19.5% (95% CI 19.4% to 21.7%) to 1.8% (95% CI 1.4 to 2.1%) and 33.7% (95% CI 33.2% to 34.9%) in 2005–2035. Conversely, HIV prevalence in the heroin-only group was projected to decrease from 8.0% (95% CI 7.6% to 8.1%) to 2.2% (95% CI 2.0% to 2.3%) in 2005–2035. Syphilis prevalence was estimated to remain unchanged in all population groups within this time frame. It was projected that the proportion of HIV transmitted by sexual transmission will increase compared with unsafe injection transmission in all people who use drugs from 2005 to 2035.ConclusionOur modelling suggests that polydrug use is projected to lead to the highest HIV and HCV disease burden by 2035, and the proportion of HIV transmitted by sexual transmission will increase. Current HIV intervention among people using heroin seems effective according to our estimation.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the impact of changing drug-use trend on HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis epidemics among people who use synthetic drug-only, polydrug and heroin-only during 2005–2035 in China: modelling study

Fairley

Mao

et al. 2020

Sex Transm Infect

Self Cite

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“…In China, heroin use remains a public health concern (24), and in 2016, there were 162,000 Chinese individuals receiving methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) for heroin dependence (25). These patients with heroin dependence, although they are undergoing MMT, are still at higher risk of completed suicide and other non-fatal suicidal behaviors (26)(27)(28)(29).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship Between Buddhist Belief and Suicide Risk in Chinese Persons Undergoing Methadone Maintenance Therapy for Heroin Dependence

Huang

Zhong

2020

Front. Psychiatry

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Background: In western countries, there is a negative association between religious belief and suicide risk, while in China this association is positive. Nevertheless, few data are available on the association between one specific type of religion and suicide risk, which might be different from the overall positive religion-suicide association in China. This study examined the association between Buddhist belief and suicide risk in Chinese persons receiving methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) for heroin dependence. Methods: In total, 61 Buddhist believers and 425 age, gender, and clinic frequencymatched non-religious believers were selected from a sample of patients with heroin dependence treated in three MMT clinics in Wuhan, China. The suicidality module of the Chinese version of the Mini-international Neuropsychiatric Interview 5.0 was used to assess current suicide risk. Patients' demographic and clinical characteristics were also collected. Multiple ordinary logistic regression was used to analyze the association between Buddhist belief and current suicide risk, controlling for the confounding effects of demographic and clinical factors. Results: In Chinese patients receiving MMT for heroin dependence, Buddhist believers had significantly higher levels of current suicide risk than non-religious believers (low: 45.9% vs. 24.7%, medium: 4.9% vs. 3.5%, high: 19.7% vs. 12.5%, P < 0.001). After adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates (including depressive symptoms), Buddhist belief was still significantly associated with an increase in the level of current suicide risk (OR: 2.98, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Buddhist belief is significantly associated with elevated current suicide risk in Chinese patients receiving MMT for heroin independence. In Chinese MMT clinics, patients with Buddhist belief may have a high current suicide risk and a timely psychiatric assessment and crisis intervention (when necessary) should be provided to these patients.

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“…Synthetic drugs, such as amphetamines and ketamine, are the most widely abused drugs in China now. Due to the central excitatory and psychedelic effect, they have become popular among young people for recreational usage [1][2][3][4][5]. Drug users often take a mixture of drugs to experience the synergistic stimulation produced by various drugs and reduce anxiety and stress.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of amphetamines, ketamine and their metabolites in hair with high-speed grinding and solid-phase microextraction followed by LC-MS

Meng

Dai²,

Chen

et al. 2020

Forensic Sciences Research

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A novel hair sample pre-treatment method based on high-speed grinding and solid-phase microextraction (SPME) had been applied for the determination of amphetamines, ketamine and their metabolites in hair samples by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). A 20 mg sample of hair was ground with 2 mL of saturated sodium carbonate solution using a high-efficiency hair grinder with 70 Hz oscillation for 2 min at 4 °C. After centrifuging, 1.5 mL of the supernatant was transferred and treated with SPME by direct immersion (DI-SPME). The target analytes extracted by fibre were desorbed and analysed using LC-MS. Under the optimum conditions, a recovery of 90.2%–95.8% was obtained for all analytes. The analytical method was linear for all analytes in the range from 0.2 to 10 ng/mg with the correlation coefficient ranging from 0.9985 to 0.9993. The detection limits for all analytes were estimated to be 0.067 ng/mg. The accuracy (mean relative error) was within ±6.9% and the precision (relative standard error) was less than 6.8%. The combination of high-speed grinding of hair and SPME had the advantages of being easy to perform, environment-friendly and high in detection sensitivity. The proposed method offered an alternative analytical approach for the sensitive detection of drugs in hair samples for forensic purposes. Key Points The SPME was involved for the determination of drugs in hair with LC-MS. The hair high-speed grinding combined with SPME was firstly developed. Good linearity, sensitivity, recovery and precision were achieved.

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Estimates of the national trend of drugs use during 2000–2030 in China: A population-based mathematical model

Cited by 17 publications

References 42 publications

Estimation of the impact of changing drug-use trend on HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis epidemics among people who use synthetic drug-only, polydrug and heroin-only during 2005–2035 in China: modelling study

Estimation of the impact of changing drug-use trend on HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis epidemics among people who use synthetic drug-only, polydrug and heroin-only during 2005–2035 in China: modelling study

Relationship Between Buddhist Belief and Suicide Risk in Chinese Persons Undergoing Methadone Maintenance Therapy for Heroin Dependence

Determination of amphetamines, ketamine and their metabolites in hair with high-speed grinding and solid-phase microextraction followed by LC-MS

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