Estimates of road traffic deaths in Tanzania

Abstract

IntroductionThere is considerable uncertainty in estimates of traffic deaths in many sub-Saharan African countries, with the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the Global Status Report on Road Safety (GSRRS) reporting widely differing estimates. As a case study, we reviewed and compared estimates for Tanzania.MethodsWe estimated the incidence of traffic deaths and vehicle ownership in Tanzania from nationally representative surveys. We compared findings with GBD and GSRRS estimates.ResultsTraffic death estimates based on the 2012 census (9382 deaths; 95% CI: 7565 to 11 199) and the 2011–2014 Sample Vital Registration with Verbal Autopsy (8778; 95% CI: 7631 to 9925) were consistent with each other and were about halfway between GBD (5 608; 95% UI: 4506 to 7014) and WHO (16 252; 95% CI: 13 130 to 19 374) estimates and more than twice official statistics (3885 deaths in 2013). Surveys and vehicle registrations data show that motorcycles have increased rapidly since 2007 and now comprise 66% of vehicles. However, these trends are not reflected in GBD estimates of motorcycles in the country, likely resulting in an underestimation of motorcyclist deaths.ConclusionReducing discrepancies between GBD and GSRRS estimates and demonstrating consistency with local epidemiological data will increase the legitimacy of such estimates among national stakeholders. GBD, which is the only project that models the road-user distribution of traffic deaths in all countries, likely severely underestimates motorcycle deaths in countries where there has been a recent increase in motorcycles. Addressing police under-reporting and strengthening surveillance capacity in Tanzania will allow a better understanding of the road safety problem and better targeting of interventions.

Addressing discrepancies in estimates of road traffic deaths and injuries in Ethiopia

“…However, motor vehicle registries can under-represent the number of vehicles in a country because of unregistered vehicles 7. Nevertheless, our analysis of household survey data confirms that vehicle ownership levels in Ethiopia are in fact much lower than the region (eg, 0.9% of households own cars in Ethiopia, compared with 3.6% in Tanzania9). The survey data also suggest that while motorcycle ownership rates are still low in Ethiopia (1.1% of households compared with 9.2% in Tanzania9), they are rapidly rising.…”

“…Nevertheless, our analysis of household survey data confirms that vehicle ownership levels in Ethiopia are in fact much lower than the region (eg, 0.9% of households own cars in Ethiopia, compared with 3.6% in Tanzania9). The survey data also suggest that while motorcycle ownership rates are still low in Ethiopia (1.1% of households compared with 9.2% in Tanzania9), they are rapidly rising. This suggests that motorcyclist deaths in Ethiopia are likely rising as we well, even though this trend is not evident in GBD-2019 estimates.…”

“…However, GBD estimates are used much less than GSRRS in global road safety advocacy partly because GBD methods and their effects on estimates are poorly understood. We believe country case studies that compare estimates with national data sources, such as this study of Ethiopia and similar work in other countries,8 9 can help build confidence in global statistical models.…”

“…This close correspondence between DHS-2016 and GSRRS-2018 estimates of road traffic deaths is surprising because GSRRS methods do not allow incorporating mortality data from surveys and the other most common sources of epidemiological information from LMICs (eg, verbal autopsies and incomplete death registers)30 31 that are routinely included in GBD. However, as we have recently shown even GBD does not include many key sources for road traffic deaths and injuries 7–9. The 2016 DHS in Ethiopia is an important example of such a data source because it is the only nationally representative source of information on road traffic injury mortality.…”

Students’ Poor Mathematics Performance in Ghana: Are there Contributing Factors?

“…One of the most significant disciplines in the global school curriculum is mathematics [1]. It is the bedrock of scientific and technological knowledge that makes a substantial contribution to a country's socio-economic development [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Mathematics has an impact on many people's daily life [7].…”