Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements

Abstract

Depletion of the ozone layer has been observed on a global scale, and is probably related to halocarbon emissions. Ozone depletion increases the biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, which leads to a variety of adverse effects, including an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. The 1985 Vienna Convention provided the framework for international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances. The consequences of such restrictions have not yet been assessed in terms of effects avoided. Here we present a new method of estimating future excess skin cancer risks which is used to compare effects of a 'no restrictions' scenario with two restrictive scenarios specified under the Vienna Convention: the Montreal Protocol, and the much stricter Copenhagen Amendments. The no-restrictions and Montreal Protocol scenarios produce a runaway increase in skin cancer incidence, up to a quadrupling and doubling, respectively, by the year 2100. The Copenhagen Amendments scenario leads to an ozone minimum around the year 2000, and a peak relative increase in incidence of skin cancer of almost 10% occurring 60 years later. These results demonstrate the importance of the international measures agreed upon under the Vienna Convention.

Antarctic ozone hole as observed by IASI/MetOp for 2008–2010

“…In the troposphere ozone is considered to be one of the primary air pollutants and main greenhouse gases and in high pollution areas it has been shown to have significant negative impacts on human health and local ecosystems (Slaper et al, 1996). In the stratosphere however, where ozone concentrations greatly exceed those of the troposphere, ozone works to protect the Earth by absorbing the sun's harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation.…”

“…Studies have established that during this period the ozone hole extends over a large part of the Antarctic region and increases the level of UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface in the ozone hole region (Newman et al, 2007). This in turn leads to adverse impacts on human health in parts of South America (de Laat et al, 2010;Slaper et al, 1996).…”

Reconstruction of erythemal UV-doses for two stations in Austria: a comparison between alpine and urban regions

“…An increase in UV-doses may lead to a broad variety of environmental and health effects (e.g. Slaper et al, 1996;UNEP, 1998;National Radiological Protection Board, 2002). The eye, the immune system and the skin are the three major organ systems of humans which are commonly exposed to sunlight and for all of them health effects regarding solar UV radiation have been documented (WHO, 1994(WHO, , 2006Longstreth et al, 1998).…”

Reduction of solar UV by clouds: A comparison between satellite‐derived cloud effects and ground‐based radiation measurements

“…Increases in UV-B doses can lead to a wide variety of adverse health and environmental effects, including increase in skin cancer incidence, cataracts, and possible decrease in primary biomass production [United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) , 1998]. An assessment of environmental risks [e.g., Slaper et al, 1996] requires knowledge on the changes in spectral UV irradiances received at ground level. Apart from changes in the total ozone and solar elevation, also clouds, UV maps allow the study of regional differences but are limited with respect to time and spatial resolution.…”