Estimates of Early Twentieth-Century U.S. Homicide Rates: An Econometric Forecasting Approach

Abstract

Bureau of the Census death registration records, as reported in Mortality Statistics, are a primary source for early twentieth-century U.S. homicide statistics. Those data appear to show a massive rise in homicide during the first decade of the century, with a continuing increase through 1933. This increase is quite at variance with the trend away from violence in other industrialized societies. During the first one-third of the century, however, death registration was incomplete; it occurred only in an expanding "registration area" that was composed, in the earlier years, primarily of states with typically low rates of homicide. Further, in the first decade of the century homicides within the registration area often were reported as accidental deaths. As a result, apparent increases in rates of homicide in the United States between 1900 and 1933 may be illusory. I use a two-step process to address these problems. Drawing on internal evidence and commentaries in early volumes of Mortality Statistics, I use GLS regression to estimate the prevalence of undercounts. Then I create a series of GLS models that use registration area data to estimate early twentieth-century national rates. These estimates call into question the extent of homicide change early in the century.

Asymmetric Loss Functions for Forecasting in Criminal Justice Settings

“…Over the past 30 years, criminal justice forecasting applications have become more varied: forecasts of crime rates (Blumstein and Larson, 1969;Cohen and Land, 1987;Eckberg, 1995), prison populations (Berk et al, 1983;Austin et al, 2007), repeat domestic violence incidents (Berk et al, 2005) and others. New methodological issues continue to surface and in that context, it is not surprising that the performance of criminal justice forecasts has been mixed at best (Farrington, 1987;Gottfredson and Moriarty, 2006).…”

Lead exposure and violent crime in the early twentieth century

“…Starting in 1921, the Mortality Statistics dropped the "violent deaths" category and began reporting the number of homicides. Like Eckberg (1995), we believe that the reported deaths from other violence in 1906-1920 probably include homicides. However, these counts also include non-homicide deaths and may exclude some homicides.…”

Underestimates of unintentional firearm fatalities: comparing Supplementary Homicide Report data with the National Vital Statistics System

“…For example, in the first decade of the 20th century, many homicides were reported in the mortality statistics as accidental deaths. 6 In addition, for religious, financial and even political reasons, medical examiners and coroners have sometimes been reluctant to certify suicide as the cause of death for self inflicted injury and may thus misclassify some suicides as accidents. 7 This article investigates a bias that may lead to an underestimate of unintentional firearm fatalities in the vital statistics system.…”