Estimates and Forecasts on the Burden of Prediabetes and Diabetes in Adult and Elderly Population in Turkiye

Abstract

Aims Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that limits the quality and duration of life. We aimed to estimate the impact of demographic change on the burden of prediabetes and diabetes between 2010 and 2021, and the projections to 2030 and 2045 in Turkiye. Materials and methods Prediabetes and diabetes estimates were calculated by direct standardization method using age- and sex-specific prevalence data from the previous ‘Turkish Epidemiology Survey of Diabetes, Hypertension, Obesity and Endocrine Disease’ (TURDEP-II) as reference. The 2010–2021 population demographics were obtained from TurkStat. Comparative age-adjusted diabetes prevalence was estimated using the standard population models of world and Europe. Results Estimates depicted that the population (20–84 years) of any degree of glucose intolerance in Turkiye increased by over 5.7 million (diabetes: 2.4 million and prediabetes: 3.3 million) from 2010 to 2021. While the increase in prediabetes and diabetes prevalence was 24.3% and 35.2% in overall population, corresponding increase were 46.5% and 51.3% in the elderly. Estimated prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes in 2021 was significantly higher in women than in men (prediabetes: 32.6% vs. 25.2%; diabetes: 17.1% vs. 14.2%). The comparative age-adjusted diabetes prevalence to the European population model was higher than that of the world population model (19.4% vs. 15.0%). According to the projections the prevalence of diabetes will reach 17.5% in 2030 and 19.2% in 2045. Conclusion Assuming age- and sex-specific diabetes prevalence of TURDEP-II survey remained constant, this study revealed that the number of people with diabetes in the general population (particularly in the elderly) in the last 11 years in Turkiye has increased in parallel with the population growth and aging; it will continue to grow over the coming decades. This means the burden of diabetes on the social, economic and health services will remain to increase. The fact suggests that there is an urgent need for re-organization of care as well as to develop and implement a country-specific prevention program to reduce this burden. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-022-00960-8.

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