Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Abstract

A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01, emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading towards fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we assessed the relative transmissibility of this novel variant. Depending on the analysis, we estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 43–82% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–106%) more transmissible than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. We did not find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants. Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence. To assess the potential impact of VOC 202012/01, we fitted a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to observed COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy, and deaths; SARS-CoV-2 PCR prevalence and seroprevalence; and the relative frequency of VOC 202012/01. We find that without stringent control measures, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths are projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020. Control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.

The SARS-CoV-2 Y453F mink variant displays a striking increase in ACE-2 affinity but does not challenge antibody neutralization

“…The N439K may make the virus more infectious due to an increased affinity towards ACE-2 and/or a reduced sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies (26)(27)(28). The N501Y mutant is a part of a novel strain, "Variant of Concern 202012/01"/B.1.1.7, that has accumulated 17 mutations-8 of them in the spike gene-and in some areas of England may account for most of the new cases at the time of writing (18). The Y453F was first identified in Denmark in the summer of 2020 among farmed minks.…”

“…At present two new RBD variants known as N439K and N501Y have been found in humans. The latter appears to have a better transmission or improved immune evasion than the original counterpart and this variant is currently increasing in the infection cases in the UK (18). There is a general lack of evidence characterizing the pathogenesis, functional properties, and impact on these new cluster variants' immune recognition and memory responses.…”

Intranasal ChAdOx1 nCoV-19/AZD1222 vaccination reduces shedding of SARS-CoV-2 D614G in rhesus macaques

“…Of note, subgenomic RNA levels generally appeared to correlate more strongly with antibody levels than genomic RNA levels across sampling sites. and 501Y.V2 (B.1.351) were detected 21 and VOC2020-12/01 (B.1.1.7) was potentially linked to increased transmission 22 . Both strains contain the N501Y mutation in RBD.…”

mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants

“…To determine whether plasma from vaccinated individuals can neutralize circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and mutants that arise in vitro under antibody pressure 12,13 , we tested vaccinee plasma against a panel of 10 mutant pseudotype viruses including recently reported N501Y (B1.1.7 variant), K417N, E484K and the combination of these 3 RBD mutations (501Y.V2 variant) [14][15][16][17][18][19] . Vaccinee plasma was significantly less effective in neutralizing the HIV-1 virus pseudotyped with certain SARS-CoV-2 mutant S proteins ( Fig.…”

“…For example, antibody C627, which was assigned to class 2 based on sensitivity to the E484K mutation, selected for the emergence of the E484K mutation in vitro (Fig 3c). Notably, 6 of the antibodies selected for K417N, E or T, 5 selected for E484K and 3 selected for N501Y, T or H, which coincide with mutations present in the circulating B.1.1.17/501Y.V1, B.1.351/501Y.V2 and B1.1.28/501.V3 (P.1) variants that have been associated with rapidly increasing case numbers in particular locales 14,17,18,36 .…”